Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Wednesday, May 22 (Target Luka Doncic, Mike Conley)

Two elite defensive teams are going head-to-head in the Western Conference Finals, which could make it tougher to predict who will score first in Game 1.

Still, there are two players that I'm targeting as first basket scorers in this matchup, and the odds are pretty favorable considering the favorite -- Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic -- is sitting at +500.

That's the beauty of betting on first basket scorers. They aren't easy to predict, but when you get one right, it usually means you're cashing in on some very favorable odds.

Here's how I view this market playing out in Game 1 between the Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves:

NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+500)
• Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+950)

Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+500)

Doncic is the obvious choice for Dallas in this market, as he had the ball in his hands a ton night after night as a primary scorer and creator. 

This season, Doncic has 13 first baskets, and he takes the first shot of the game 14.6 percent of the time – the second-highest mark on the Mavs behind only Kyrie Irving.

Nobody in this matchup has made more first baskets than Doncic, and we all know how dominant he’s been scoring the ball this season after he averaged 33.9 points per game in the regular season.

After a few days off, I expect Doncic to be as fresh as he’s been all postseason on Wednesday night. 

Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+950)

If you’re looking for more of a long shot in this market, Mike Conley is criminally undervalued – and has been all season – as a first basket scorer for the Timberwolves.

Conley attempts the first shot of the game more than any other player on the Wolves (12.8 percent of the time) and he’s turned that into 10 first baskets. Only Jaden McDaniels (11 first baskets) has more than Conley for the Wolves this season. 

With Dallas’ best defenders likely matching up with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, Conley could find himself involved in an early action in Game 1. 

Since both of these teams win the jump ball about 44 percent of the time in the 2023-24 season, I think it’s worth taking a player on each squad to score first tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.