Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Friday, April 26 (Target Damian Lillard, Mike Conley)
By Peter Dewey
The NBA Playoffs continue on Friday night with three Game 3s, and there are plenty of ways to bet on the action tonight, including taking a first basket scorer.
Betting on a first basket scorer is a great way to add some intrigue to the opening minutes, and there are some players that we should target based on first shot percentage and other statistics this season.
Here's who I'm targeting in each of these games on Friday:
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NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions
- Damian Lillard First Basket Scorer (+500)
- Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+500)
- Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+1100)
Damian Lillard First Basket Scorer (+500)
With Giannis Antetokounmpo doubtful and Khris Middleton questionable, Damian Lillard’s role may expand even more than it has through the first two games of this series.
Dame has been solid as a first basket scorer this season, recording 10 of them while taking the first shot of the game 16.2 percent of the time.
The Bucks, who win the jump ball 56.0 percent of the time, are much more likely to get the ball first based on that number than the Pacers (39.3 percent jump ball win rate).
Dame has 45 shot attempts in two games, so don’t be shocked if he looks to score early on Friday.
Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+500)
Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are in playoff mode, which means even more action than usual runs through Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Because of that, I think he’s a great target in the first basket scorer market tonight.
Luka has had 10 first baskets on the season despite taking the first shot just 13.9 percent of the time, but he’s posted the highest usage rate in the playoffs in the NBA in the last two seasons. This season, his playoff usage is at 34.6 percent, around the same mark he had during the regular season (which led the NBA).
Bet on Luka to look for his offense early on Friday.
Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+1100)
This play is more about the number than anything for Mike Conley, who scored the first basket in Game 2 of this series between the Timberwolves and Suns.
On the season, Conley ranks first on the Wolves in first baskets made (10, tied with Jaden McDaniels), and he takes the first shot a team-high 12.8 percent of the time.
So why is he priced so low in Game 3?
It may be unlikely that Conley scores first in back-to-back games, but we’ve seen defense reign supreme all series, so there’s a chance he doesn’t even need the first shot to be the first on the board tonight.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.