Best NBA Player Prop for Nikola Jokic in Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 5
The defending champion Denver Nuggets have clawed their way back in the series after being down 0-2 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Now, going back home for Game 5 with the series tied at two games apiece, the Nuggets will look to keep the momentum and make it three straight wins.
To do that, they will need to lean on their three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 26.8 points per game in the series. Will we see a legacy game from Jokic tonight? Or will the Timberwolves be able to slow him down en route to their third road win of the series?
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Best Player Prop for Nikola Jokic in Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 5
- Nikola Jokic OVER 30.5 Points
Nikola Jokic OVER 30.Points
Earlier in the series, I took the under on rebounds for Jokic because of his history against Rudy Gobert. This time, I am going to take the over on one of his alternate points lines — the one set at 30.5 for plus-money (+116) — for the same reason: because of his history against Gobert.
As mentioned earlier, Jokic is averaging 26.8 points per game in the series which is obviously lower than this line but he has gone over 30.5 points twice, with games of 32, 16, 24, and 35 points. The uncharacteristic performance in Game 2 was when Gobert was out of the lineup and Jokic only shot 5 of 13 from the field.
And when we look back even further the correlation between Jokic scoring and Gobert playing has remained true. In the last eight games against Gobert, Jokic has gone for over 30 points five times (all of which are over 31) and is averaging 32.6 points during that stretch. He is also logging 23.9 field goal attempts per game and 8.4 free throw attempts per game during that time.
So, with the opportunity to take their first lead in the series and with Jokic showing that he can still play well despite the four-time defensive player of the year winner on the floor, he should be able to cash the over on 30.5 points for plus money value.
Find Patrick Previty's NBA betting record here.
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