The BetSided team is all in on player props for this NBA season, sharing our favorite and best prop bet picks each day during the year.
Tonight's playoff matchup has us going West for the Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks.
Best NBA Prop Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Prop Bets Record: 297-246-4 (+13.9988 units)
Here are the plays our team is eyeing for tonight’s slate with all odds via WynnBET:
Best NBA Prop Bets Today
- Draymond Green OVER 6 Assists (-125)
- Kevon Looney OVER 7.5 Points (-115)
- Luka Doncic UNDER 52.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Draymond Green OVER 6 Assists (-125)
Back on May 11, the Warriors got shellacked in a series elimination game against the Memphis Grizzlies in Memphis; falling 134-95.
In Game 6 back in San Francisco, Green went off; finishing with 14 points, 15 boards and eight assists as the Warriors advanced to the Western Conference Finals.
I see a similar scenario playing out in Game 5 tonight, fresh off a blowout loss in Dallas. Green has seen his assist numbers go up in every game of the series, while averaging 6.3 assists at home during the 2022 postseason.
Green also came off Game 3 with 17 potential assist opportunities via NBA.com, and finished Game 4 with just nine. He’s averaging 10.3 assist opportunities per game in the Conference Finals, so the shots just need to go in, and based on the Warriors’ undefeated record at home this postseason, I’ll bank on that to happen more tonight.
This line has already moved to 6.5 at most other sportsbooks, so I’ll happily pay a little extra juice at a number I project to be closer to eight. – Ben Heisler
Kevon Looney OVER 7.5 Points (-115)
Kevon Looney missed this mark in Game 4.
However, he’s hit it in every other game in this series. Looney got a few looks at the free throw line in the last two games and is getting free because of Steph Curry’s gravity.
Looney played 10 less minutes than usual in Game 4. With the Warriors expected to actually be in this game, back Looney to get easy chances at the rim. – Donnavan Smoot
Luka Doncic UNDER 52.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
I’ve stayed away from this prop in this series, but I’m going to go back to the Luka Doncic UNDER on his PRA in this game.
Yes, Luka has cleared this number in three straight games, but with his PRA now climbing to 52.5 I’m going to zig when everyone else is zagging.
Outside of the past three games, Doncic has recorded 53 or more points, rebounds and assists in just one other playoff game, when he scored 45 points in Game 1 against the Phoenix Suns.
So, Doncic has hit the UNDER on this number in 10 of 14 games? Yeah, I’m not going to fall into the recency bias here and take the UNDER, as he’s due to regress in some way in Game 5 in Golden State. – Peter Dewey