Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Bucks vs. Thunder: Friday Night Fireworks from SGA and Giddey
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to the Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action on Friday night.
This game carries significant playoff seeding implications for both teams.
On one side of the court is the Thunder, who have already locked up the number 3 seed at the minimum, but with the potential to steal the top spot in the Western Conference from the Denver Nuggets, there's no slowing down just yet.
On the other side of the court are the Bucks. Currently sitting at 2nd in the Eastern Conference, they can't catch the Boston Celtics as the top seed, but they could potentially fall as far down as to the 4th seed if they lose these last two games, and without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, anything can happen.
Injuries aside, I expect this game to be a lot closer than the bookmakers do, who have it set at a 14.5-point spread in favor of the Thunder.
With a competitive game, comes some juicy betting spots, and I've got two I absolutely love tonight. Let's break them down!
Best Prop Bets for Bucks vs. Thunder
- Shai-Gilgeous Alexander OVER 33.5 Points+Rebounds
- Josh Giddey OVER 26.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander OVER 33.5 Points+Rebounds
This is a great matchup for SGA against the Bucks tonight. To start, the Bucks are particularly susceptible to point guards like SGA, as they concede the 4th-most points per possession to pick-and-roll ball handlers. This vulnerability plays directly into SGA’s strengths, as he consistently dominates in this role.
Historically, SGA’s recent performances at home add further credibility to his ability to clear this line with ease. He has surpassed the combined points and rebounds line in 8 of his last 10 home games, with an impressive average of 37.1 PR. Additionally, his consistency in minutes - averaging 34.3 per game at home - ensures he’ll have ample time on the floor to accumulate these stats again tonight.
The tempo of the game also favors another high-output performance from SGA. Oklahoma City ranks as the 4th-quickest team in terms of tempo over their last 5 games. This faster pace leads to more possessions and subsequently, more opportunities for scoring and rebounding for SGA.
Don’t overthink this play tonight, it's SGA. He’s one of the most consistent and effective players in the league, and he’ll clear this line with ease for us tonight.
Josh Giddey OVER 26.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
Giddey has been scorching lately and there’s no reason not to continue riding the hot hand tonight in a great matchup. To start, the Bucks will be without key players Antetokounmpo and Lillard, significantly weakening their lineup. This absence not only affects Milwaukee’s offensive output but also reduces their defensive efficacy, as Pat Beverley and Malik Beasley will be left to guard SGA and Giddey, providing an excellent opportunity for Oklahoma City’s guards to capitalize on increased scoring and playmaking responsibilities.
Further, Giddey has been seeing an increase in playing time over his last 10 games, averaging 29.6 minutes per game. This is crucial because when Giddey plays 30 minutes or more at home, he’s over this line 100% of the time. Even if he sees slightly under his average playing time, there is still confidence with this pick, as he’s still over this line in his last 7 out of 10 games and 3 straight versus the Bucks when recording 27+ minutes.
The Bucks are allowing the 4th most points and the most point three-pointers to shooting guards over the last 7 games, and the 4th most rebounds to the position in the last 15 games. This gives Giddy multiple potential pathways to rack up his respective totals on Friday night.
Giddy’s recent performance trends, alongside the matchup he gets tonight, give me full confidence that he will get it done for us tonight. If you’re feeling hesitant, take the over on his rebounds or PA line, as I think he skyrockets past them all.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.