Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Heat vs. Celtics for Game 1 of Eastern Conference Playoffs

Mar 30, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA;  Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) has a few words
Mar 30, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) has a few words / Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The Heat and Celtics restart another playoff matchup, but this one is expected to be the most lopsided with Boston fresh off a dominant regular season.

With a big point spread, let's key in on some player props, an dhow the Miami Heat defense matches up against the likes of Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday. On the Heat side, I'm counting on Bam Adebayo to have a big effort on the glass without Jimmy Butler and the Miami defense needing to win the rebounding battle.

Here's my three favorite player props for Sunday's Game 1:

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Best Player Props for Celtics vs. Heat Game 1

  • Jrue Holiday OVER 12.5 Points
  • Jaylen Brown UNDER 2.5 Three Pointers
  • Bam Adebayo OVER 10.5 Rebounds 

Jrue Holiday OVER 12.5 Points

As broken down in our game preview, the Heat’s perimeter defense is going to be a key to the underdog keeping up in this one. To me, I believe that means someone like Holiday, who isn’t as reliant on the three-point shot, will be relied on to score a bit more. 

The Heat will look to contest the Celtics’ three-point tries, but Holiday is 42% from three and 48% from the field on a modest 40% three-point clip. He’ll hit them when needed, but it’s not his entire offense.

This is right in line with his season average, but Holiday has gone over this mark in his last 10 games against the Heat, dating back to his time with the Bucks. While its a different role, its held up here, averaging more than 16 points on 65% shooting from the field.

Jaylen Brown UNDER 2.5 Three Pointers

Brown went over this number in all three games against the Heat in the regular season, but I’m going to trust the top five three-point defense to keep a lid on Brown’s perimeter shooting like the last postseason, when he went under this mark in six of seven games. 

The Celtics wing has been better from three-point range this season, up from 33% to 35% year-over-year, but I’m going to trust the overall body of work of this Heat defense and experience against Brown to keep him below this mark. 

Bam Adebayo OVER 10.5 Rebounds

Adebayo went over this mark in two of three games this season, and while the loss of Butler may be impactful, I envision a big outing from Adebayo as the Heat try to limit Boston to one field goal attempt per possession. 

Adebayo averaged 18 rebound chances per game, but given the offensive avalanche, only had 11 in the Play-In victory against the Bulls. 

Against Boston, who is a perimeter oriented outfit, I believe Adebayo can jump start the Heat offense by cleaning the glass. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.