Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 4 (Predictions for Luka Doncic, Josh Giddey)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Dallas Mavericks-Oklahoma City Thunder playoff matchup.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrates.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrates. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

After three games of the Oklahoma City Thunder-Dallas Mavericks matchup, we’re starting to get a feel for what players are going to put up big-time numbers, and which ones to fade in the prop market. 

One of the players I’m looking to fade is Josh Giddey, who has gotten played off the floor due to his lack of 3-point shooting ability. 

I’m looking at props for two players in addition to Giddey, including a play for Luka Doncic after a down-scoring game in Game 3. 

Thunder vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bets 

  • Isaiah Joe OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-108)
  • Josh Giddey UNDER 6.5 Points (-110)
  • Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 Points (-120)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Isaiah Joe OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-108)

If there’s a player that may replace Giddey in the rotation, it could be sharpshooter Isaiah Joe, who made three of his four shots from 3-point range in Game 3 and has at least two shots made from 3 in four of his last six games. 

Joe saw nearly 20 minutes of action in each of his last two games, and he could be the ideal floor spacer that the Thunder need to maximize their offense. 

I think he’s worth a shot in this prop, especially if he keeps getting up three or more shots from 3 per game. 

Josh Giddey UNDER 6.5 Points (-110)

Giddey has gotten played off the floor in this series, posting a minus-28 plus/minus in three games despite playing limited minutes.

While he’s scored over 6.5 points in two of those three games, I have to think that Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault is going to make some changes in Game 4 with the Thunder facing a potential 3-1 series deficit. 

If that’s the case, Giddey’s playing time could be cut even more than before. If that happens, I can’t expect to score much, especially since that’s not his strong suit as a player. 

Luka Doncic OVER 28.5 Points (-120)

I’m buying low on Luka Doncic, who scored just 22 points in Game 3, to bounce back in Game 4 at home. 

Doncic averaged 33.9 points per game during the regular season, but he’s scored 29 or more points just five times in nine playoff games. 

Knee and ankle injuries certainly have played a role in that, but Doncic has still taken 23.3 field goal attempts and 7.7 free throw attempts per game in the playoffs. 

Given that usage, he’s worth a shot at one of the lower points prop totals that we’ve seen for him this season.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.