Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1 (Bet THIS Aaron Gordon Player Prop)

The Timberwolves and Nuggets meet for the second consecutive postseason in what is expected to be one of the most competitive series' of the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

With two of the best teams in the NBA set to tip off, player prop intrigue is all over the board, and I believe the Timberwolves unique defense sets up for some role changes from the amorphous Denver Nuggets starting lineup, so I targeted three player props for the likes of Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

Here's how I view Game 1 from a player prop perspective.

Best NBA Player Props for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 1

• Aaron Gordon OVER 3.5 Assists
• Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 Threes Made
• Jamal Murray UNDER 23.5 Points

Aaron Gordon OVER 3.5 Assists

It's pricey to play this over, but there's cause for it.

In the most recent meeting between the two teams, we saw the Nuggets use Aaron Gordon as more of a facilitator as the Timberwolves' used Rudy Gobert to check Gordon and roam off of him to help on Nikola Jokic.

Gordon isn't a threat from the perimeter, so the T'Wolves have structured its league best defense that way, but in the Nuggets victory back on April 10th, Gordon tossed out nine assists as the team used him as a ball handler to engage Gobert directly.

I'm going to play into this trend to start the series as the Nuggets look to find answers against the vaunted T'Wolves defense.

In this postseason, Gordon tossed out at least three assists in each game, going over in three in the five game series win against the Lakers while playing 40 or more minutes in all but one game. After averaging fewer than six potential assists in the regular season, he was up to more than eight potentials in the first round.

Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 Threes Made

Another way for Denver to attack Minnesota is by spacing Jokic out along the perimeter in order to pull a big man away from the rim.

The soon to be three-time MVP shoots about 36% from distance on a shade fewer than three threes per game. However, he has upped his perimeter volume against the Timberwolves' taking nearly four per game this season. In last year's postseason series, he averaged more than four threes per game, going over this mark in three games.

At + money, I believe we see Jokic get up threes again and I'm happy to bank on two.

Jamal Murray UNDER 23.5 Points

Murray has struggled to find his shot against Minnesota, a testament to the league's best defense.

In three games against the T'Wolves this season, Murray went under this number in all three games. While his minutes were down, he averaged about 30 minutes per game, he shot below his season average in two of the games.

I believe that Murray plays the role of facilitator more and for the likes of Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. to do the heavy lifting as scorers. It's also worth noting that Murray is still on the injury report with a lingering calf strain. While he is expected to play, there may be some restrictions in terms of his workload and minutes given its Game 1 of what's expected to be a long series.

Murray can contribute in other ways, not just scoring. Even in last season postseason series, he had two games where he scored fewer than 20, so I'm comfortable targeting this under.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.