Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Game 5 (Bet Nikola Jokic as Scorer)

May 12, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) goes to the
May 12, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) goes to the / Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Nuggets evened its Western Conference semifinals matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves at two games a piece over the weekend, setting up a pivotal Game 5 in Denver on Tuesday night. 

I’m hitting the player prop market for my bets in this one, focusing on star players like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, as well as Karl-Anthony Towns, who will look to shake off a poor pair of games in Minnesota. 

Here’s my three favorite player props for Tuesday’s Game 5. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 14th

  • Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 Points
  • Jamal Murray OVER 10.5 Rebounds + Assists
  • Karl-Anthony Towns UNDER 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 Points

Jokic has seemingly figured out the Timberwolves league best defense. 

He scored only 24 points in Game 3’s blowout win, but in a competitive Game 4, Jokic turned on the scoring, pouring in 35 points on 57% shooting. The big man got whatever he wanted against an array of different looks as the Timberwolves’ tried to avoid sending two at him, which would lead to open players due to Jokic being the best passer in the world. 

With the Nuggets beginning to space out Aaron Gordon (who shot 10-of-11 from the field in Game 4), the T’Wolves may need to stick Rudy Gobert on Jokic, who hasn’t been able to slow down the three-time MVP. 

I believe Jokic is going to need to continue to look to be a scorer as Denver tries to out-pace Anthony Edwards and Minnesota’s offense and flirt with 30 points again, which he has done in two of the four games this series, on top of doing it in three of four games in the regular season. 

Jamal Murray OVER 10.5 Rebounds + Assists

Murray looked rejuvenated in Minnesota, averaging about 22 points per game with more than four rebounds and six assists in the two wins. 

The usage has gone up for Murray, and the underlying metrics show that he is still a threat to stuff the statsheet in these matchups. 

Murray is averaging nearly nine rebound chances per game in the last two games, the second most on the team, as Denver is looking to push the pace off of misses before Minnesota can set its defense. Further, he is averaging nearly 11 potential assists in the two victories. 

If Murray looks like the player he was in Minnesota, his usage should lead to him going over this mark.

Karl-Anthony Towns UNDER 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Towns has gone under this mark in three of four games this series, and I like him to do so again. 

It’s worth noting that the only game that Towns went over this mark, Rudy Gobert didn’t play. 

While there is always the thought of a bounce-back effort from KAT after shooting 27% from the floor, I believe we see a slightly lower usage in this game than his series-high 18 field goal attempts. 

As the series drags on, the ball will stick with Anthony Edwards more and I believe that comes at the expense of KAT’s usage to rack up points, rebounds or assists. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.