Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Heat vs. Warriors (Fade Klay Thompson, Caleb Martin on Thursday)

Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson.
Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson. / John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are looking to get back on track after a brutal loss to the Phoenix Suns when they host the Miami Heat on Thursday night

Miami is fresh off a win against the Portland Trail Blazers, but it’s set as a sizable underdog against the defending champs. 

If you aren’t sold on a side for this game, you can always bet on your favorite players in the prop market. Here are three plays I’m considering for Heat-Warriors on Thursday: 

Heat vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets Today

  • Jordan Poole OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
  • Caleb Martin UNDER 8.5 Points
  • Klay Thompson UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made

Jordan Poole OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists

Jordan Poole got off to a slow shooting start this season, but he’s rebounded to score 24 and 17 points in his last two games. 

Now, the Warriors’ sixth man has a PRA prop of just 22.5 at FanDuel on Thursday night against Miami. Poole is averaging 5.8 assists per game this season, to go along with 15.0 points, clearing this prop in both of his last two games. 

It’s going to come down to the scoring for the University of Michigan product, but he’s seen the volume on offense, taking 12-plus shots in three of his four games. 

Caleb Martin UNDER 8.5 Points

Caleb Martin is in the starting lineup for Miami to replace P.J. Tucker, who left in free agency this offseason, but he’s not seeing a ton of volume as a scorer. 

Martin has taken between seven and nine shots in each of his four games, and he’s gone past this number just once, going 7-for-8 last night against the Portland Trail Blazers. 

If Martin does have an unusually good shooting night, he’s just an afterthought in Miami’s offense. For a player that averages just 7.1 points per game for his career, even being in the starting lineup isn’t enough for me to back the OVER for Martin. 

After a big night on Wednesday, I’ll fade him tonight. 

Klay Thompson UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made

Betting against Klay Thompson can be volatile, as he’s one of the streakiest players in the NBA, but I can’t get behind his slow start to the 2022-23 season. 

Thompson is on a minutes limit because of his previous injury history, and he’s averaging just 11.0 points per game while shooting 28.6 percent from beyond the arc. Thompson has gone OVER 2.5 3-pointers once this season, but it came in a game where he had 10 attempts. 

In his other three games? Thompson is just 4-for-18 from beyond the arc. 

Maybe Klay goes crazy and bounces back here, but with his minutes still hovering in the mid-20s, I think there’s value in getting plus money for him to go UNDER this prop.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.