Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Knicks vs. Heat: Target Jalen Brunson's First Quarter Passing
The Miami Heat and the New York Knicks square off in a battle between the fourth seed and the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference.
The Knicks, who have been without Julius Randle since late January, are on a two-game losing streak. The Heat on the other hand, are on a two-game winning streak, but it is against the Portland Trail Blazers and Washington Wizards.
Tonight should include all of the usual stars outside of Randle, exluding Tyler Herro and OG Anunoby who remain out due to their respective injuries. So as far as the player prop market is concerned, I am looking for another big game from Bam Adebayo and I am targeting Jalen Brunson's passing early in the contest.
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Best Prop Bets for Knicks vs Heat
- Bam Adebayo OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Jalen Brunson OVER 1.5 First Quarter Assists
- Josh Hart OVER 20.5 Points and Rebounds
Bam Adebayo OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Adebayo has been hovering right around this line for the past 10 games now, averaging 35.3 PRA's per game. But adversely, in those past 10 games he has gone over nine times with the only under being in a lowly 88-point performance for the Heat.
In that matchup he logged just under 30 minutes which has been the X-factor in determining whether Adebayo hits the over on this line. In games this season where he plays 30 minutes or more, Adebayo hits at least 32 PRA's 76% of the time.
Going on the road against the Knicks tonight where the Heat are favored by 2.5 points, I expect a close game and plenty of opportunity for Adebayo.
Jalen Brunson OVER 1.5 First Quarter Assists
Brunson takes on a Heat defense that allows 8.9 assists per game to opposing point guards (23rd in the NBA) and I think he will try to come out of the gates passing because of it.
In the last 10 games, Brunson has done it all for the Knicks, averaging 32.9 points and 6.5 assists per game during that stretch. For this prop, he has gone over 1.5 assists in seven straight opening quarters and is averaging 2.7 assists in the first quarter. Not to mention, in games without Randle this season, Brunson is 17-for-25 on this prop.
Averaging 9.4 minutes per first quarter over the last 10 games, I would consider this is a safe bet for tonight.
Josh Hart OVER 20.5 Points and Rebounds
Hart has been a rebounding machine for the Knicks (averaging 12.1 boards over the last 10 games) but his rebounding line — set at 10.5 with some books having it at plus-money — was just too high for me.
But that is not to say that I don't like Hart tonight because I am instead looking toward his PR's line. In the past 10 games he has gone 20.5 PR's seven times and during that stretch he is averaging 40.9 minutes per game.
And when Hart recieves these kind of minutes from Tom Thibodeau, he hits this line. During this season, Hart has played 18 games of 40+ minutes. In those games, he has gone over 20.5 PR's 15 times. I like it to happen again tonight.
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