Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Rockets vs Pacers: Haliburton can still deliver despite minutes restriction
The Indiana Pacers welcome in the Houston Rockets in an out-of-conference matchup tonight.
The Pacers and Rockets have met once before this season which was back in December when the Pacers won 123-117. Tonight, Tari Eason and Fred Vanvleet are both out for the Rockets and Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Smith are game-time decisions for the Pacers.
So can the Pacers sweep the season series with a win over the Rockets? Or will Alperen Sengun and company take advantage of the Pacers while Haliburton is under a minutes restriction?
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Best Prop Bets for Rockets vs Pacers
- Alperen Sengun OVER 5.5 Assists
- Tyrese Haliburton OVER 5.5 Assists
- Andrew Nembhard UNDER 5.5 Assists
Alperen Sengun OVER 5.5 Assists
With Vanvleet out tonight, Sengun will pick up some extra assists against the Pacers. In the previous game without Vanvleet this season, Sengun put up 10 assists with 13 potential assists.
He has gone over this line regardless of anybody being out in six of the last 10 games and the matchup is also favorable tonight as the Pacers allow the fifth most assists to centers in the NBA.
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 5.5 Assists
It does look like Haliburton will play tonight and the minutes restriction has been under scrutiny as of late. With Haliburton playing 21 minutes per game over the last four games, the Pacers have blown leads twice.
Tonight, we could see Haliburton's minutes spread out in a game that projects to be close, and after four games of minute restrictions, he could even approach 25-26-minute territory.
This bet is a projection and it relies on the potential assists category because when you look at his assists as of late (five assists per game over the last four games) you would not be impressed. But these outlier games are simply due to a lower assists conversion rate. For the season he has a 59% assists conversion rate but during this last stretch of games, he is only averaging 39%.
If he can be in the ballpark of his 12.8 potential assists per game (the number he is averaging since his return) he could get somewhere between 7 or 8 assists tonight as long as he can improve the conversion rate. And in the last game against the Rockets, Haliburton tallied 24 potential assists.
Andrew Nembhard UNDER 5.5 Assists
Nembhard has stepped into a bigger role during Haliburton's absence but he is slowly returning to his former position as a catch-and-shoot player instead of a floor general.
In the Pacers' last game vs the Charlotte Hornets, he had only three assists off of five potential assists over the course of 27 minutes. In that game his usage rate was under 10% and his assists usage rate was 14%.
It appears like this line has not adjusted for the return of Haliburton and the potential for him to fully take the reigns back very soon.
Find Patrick Previty's NBA betting record here.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.