Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Rockets vs Timberwolves: Ant-Man Gets it Done

Expect Anthony Edwards to show up in a big way on Tuesday night.

Dec 18, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5)
Dec 18, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

With the NBA Playoffs fast-approaching, every game matters, and it's no different in tonight's action. The Houston Rockets travel to the Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, and both teams need a big win for different reasons.

Whether it's the Timberwolves vying for the top spot in the Western Conference, or the Rockets trying to grab that final play-in spot, expect the intensity to be there, and the big names to show up.

We went a perfect 3-0 with our picks last time out, so let’s do it again tonight!

Here’s how I’m betting player props for Rockets vs. Timberwolves, including how the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and Alperen Sengun could open up more opportunities for others. 

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Best Prop Bets for Rockets vs Timberwolves

  • Anthony Edwards OVER 26.5 points
  • Rudy Gobert OVER 13.5 points
  • Fred VanVleet OVER 6.5 assists

Anthony Edwards OVER 26.5 Points

This pick may fall under some scrutiny but hear me out first. I understand he has been struggling with his shooting recently, but he is still Anthony Edwards.

The two-time NBA All-Star knows how to win games, and with the Timberwolves sitting only one game back of first place in the Western Conference, this game seems like a must-win. 

Past the narrative, the stats are there to suggest Edwards will surpass this line with ease. He has demonstrated a remarkable ability to perform well following one day of rest this season, averaging 29.6 points per game and 27+ points in 66.6% of those instances.

Additionally, his previous success against the Rockets, including a 32-point outing earlier this season, indicates his potential to exploit this favourable matchup.

The Timberwolves are 7.5 point favorites in tonight’s game, which is important, because Edwards averages 28.8 points per game when his team gets the win, and 30.7 points per game in wins without Towns in the lineup.

With the playoffs on the doorstep, Edwards will want to find his rhythm and consistency again, and a matchup vs the Rockets looks to be the perfect game for him to make a statement in a big way.

Rudy Gobert OVER 13.5 Points

This pick feels quite simple, because Rudy Gobert owns the Rockets, and all signs are pointing to him clearing this line tonight. He’s hit this line in seven out of eight head-to-head matchups, falling on the hook in his one miss, and averaging 17.9 points over this period. This means we're getting an almost 4.5 point discount on this line, giving us lots of value with this pick.

Over Gobert’s last 10 day games at home with a one day rest, he’s averaging 16.3 points, which is still almost 3 points clear of this line.

Additionally, the absence of Towns in the Timberwolves lineup opens up more scoring opportunities for Gobert, while the absence of Sengun across the court, removes a significant defensive presence for the Rockets, which should allow Gobert to capitalize on those opened-up scoring opportunities.

Gobert has proven he can get boards, but he can get buckets too, and I’m confidently backing him to clear this line on Tuesday night.

Fred VanVleet OVER 6.5 Assists

The Timberwolves have proven vulnerable to the point guard position of late, allowing the fourth-most assists in the league over the last 10 days. This weakness presents an opportunity for a pass-first guard like VanVleet to exploit and surpass this line with ease.

VanVleet has found success against the Timberwolves in history, exceeding this line in four of his last five matchups. Even this season, he managed to exceed this mark once, with eight assists on January 5th. Although he finished the game on Feb. 4 with just one assist, he still had 11 potential assists, meaning the volume is there. 

Additionally, Sengun remains out on Tuesday night, which opens up more opportunities for VanVleet. When Sengun hasn’t suited up for games this season, VanVleet has taken advantage, hitting this line at a 70% success rate, averaging 8.5 assists. 

VanVleet’s line is usually set at 8.5 or 9.5, meaning we’re getting a solid discount, and although the match line is set at 7.5 points, I expect this competitive Rockets squad to keep the game much closer.

I don't expect them to win, but I do think it'll stay close enough, for long enough, for our guy VanVleet to see 30+ minutes on the court. Swing that rock tonight Fred! 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.