Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Spurs vs Thunder: Chet Holmgren Will Hit The OVER On THIS Prop
The Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the San Antonio Spurs tonight in a matchup between the third seed in the West and a team with the fourth-worst record in the NBA.
Important things to note: Keldon Johnson and Victor Wembanyama are both game-time decisions with Head Coach Gregg Popovich on the fence about playing his young star late in the season during meaningless games.
So with that, the books have only made available two players for prop bets but we will make it work. In addition to the restraints, I have also taken it upon myself to make both plays plus-money value to add a little bit of extra fun to the matter.
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Best Prop Bets for Thunder vs Magic
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 8.5 First Quarter Points
- Chet Holmgren OVER 15.5 Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 8.5 First Quarter Points
Sitting at around +100 on DraftKings, I am taking the under on 8.5 first quarter points for Gilgeous-Alexander.
Now, he does routinely play the entire opening quarter and the Spurs do give up the third-most points to opposing point guards but he has not hit this line in six of the last seven games, seven of the last 10 games, and in the previous matchup against the Spurs.
Since Gilgeous-Alexander lost his death grip on the scoring title, he has not put the ball in the basket like we were accustomed to seeing.
Final Verdict: "Mr. 31 PPG" is only averaging 25.3 points per game over the last 10 games and that trend has been reflected in the first quarter, no matter the opponent and no matter how many minutes he plays.
Chet Holmgren OVER 15.5 Points
The odds here are at about +100 for 15.5 points but you can go get it at +125 for 16.5 points as well (both on DraftKings).
With Wembanyama potentially out tonight on the second night of a back-to-back, Holmgren could potentially have a big night (Note: Holmgren went over 15.5 AND 16.5 points in the last two matchups against the Spurs).
But the idea behind this play has more to do with the Thunder winning. In the 54 games the Thunder have won this year — Holmgren has been a part of every win this season — he has gone over 15.5 points in 35 games (65%). That percentage goes up even further to 80% or 16/20 in games where the Thunder won by 15+ points (the spread for tonight is -15.5 in favor of the Thunder).
Final Verdict: It would probably benefit Holgrem's journey to 15.5 points if Wembanyama sits tonight, but if the Thunder win, which they have every reason to do so in the middle of a playoff seedings race, then he should hit this prop.
Find Patrick Previty's NBA betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.