Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers: Scoot Shines at Home
Did someone say 2-0 sweep yesterday? Let's do it again tonight!
The Golden State Warriors travel to the Moda Center to take on the Portland Trail Blazers in Thursday night NBA action.
This is a "must-win" game tonight for the Warriors, as they have already locked up a spot in the NBA's Play-In Tournament, but they want to avoid the single elimination threat and not be the last seed in.
Across the court are the Trail Blazers, who are long out of the playoff race and walking wounded tonight, missing some key players. Despite this, I have no fear that the Blazers aren't just going to roll over and let this 13.5-point spread come to fruition.
Instead, I'm expecting a fast-paced, competitive game, which will allow our player props to soar over (and under) their lines tonight.
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Let's break down my two best bets for tonight's matchup and continue our 3-0 run in NBA action!
Best Prop Bets for Warriors vs. Trail Blazers
- Scoot Henderson OVER 25.5 Points+Assists
- Deandre Ayton UNDER 39.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
Scoot Henderson OVER 25.5 Points+Assists
This line has to be a joke, right? Anfernee Simons, Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe, and Jerami Grant are all out tonight.
There is no one else to facilitate the offense other than Henderson. Despite the season being long over for the Trail Blazers, now it’s all about getting their young guys minutes and development, so blowout or not, Henderson will play. He’s averaged 35.8 minutes per game over his last five games, a notable elevation of 7.6 minutes from his season average.
Henderson has seen a significant increase in offensive volume of late as well, averaging 16.3 shot attempts over his last 10 games, which is a notable rise of 3.7 from his season average.
His proficiency from beyond the arc has followed closely, as over his last five games, he’s been attempting an average of 6.6 3-point shots per game, a substantial leap from his season average of 2.4.
Playing at home seems to bring out the best in Henderson too, as evidenced by his explosive point totals of 38, 28, and 43, in his last three consecutive home games. Such dominance on home court suggests a comfort level that could translate into another high-scoring performance, especially considering the Warriors’ defensive struggles, who allow 24.4 points per game to home point guards, the highest in the NBA.
I took Henderson’s combined points and assists line because his playmaking has also been on the rise, averaging a total of 18.4 potential assists per game over his last five games. He’s not only getting to the basket himself, but using increased attention caused by his ball-handling responsibilities to create scoring opportunities for his teammates.
The Warriors play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, which should create ample opportunities for Henderson and the Trail Blazers tonight. The ball will be in Scoot’s hand and the volume will be there for him, so I have full confidence he gets it done for us tonight.
Deandre Ayton UNDER 39.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists
If we’re looking at historical and seasonal data, the odds seem very stacked against Ayton for him to clear this line tonight, and rightfully so.
Ayton’s track record against the Warriors is particularly telling; he has never exceeded a total of 40 PRA in any of his 17 career matchups with them. This season's performances against the Warriors further support this trend, with Ayton recording just 17 and 21 PRA in two games, respectively.
Looking at Ayton’s home performances this season provides us with even more reassurance, with a success rate of just 22% (6/27) in hitting the over on his PRA line.
This percentage drops even more to 21% (7/33) in games following one day of rest, which is precisely the scenario heading into tonight’s matchup. Despite Ayton’s recent form, which has seen him playing some of his best basketball, he still has struggled to consistently reach anywhere near this ambitious PRA threshold.
Moreover, the context of the game adds an extra layer of difficulty for Ayton. With the Warriors in a “must-win” situation for playoff seeding, their defensive focus will likely be intensified, particularly against Ayton. Given their historical success in limiting his impact, it’s reasonable to anticipate a game plan designed to neutralize him as a primary threat.
There’s no part of me tonight that feels like Ayton will clear this line. It’s set way too high for a player who’s past performances and statistical trends have come nowhere near it. Smash the under tonight, and let’s win some money.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.