Best NBA Team Against the Spread This Season (Favorites, Underdogs and More)

Breaking down the best teams to bet on against the spread at home, on the road, as favorites and as underdogs ahead of the All-Star break this season.

Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero.
Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero. / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Betting against the spread in the NBA can be extremely challenging on a night-to-night basis, but there are some teams that thrive in certain situations better than others.

Ahead of the All-Star break this season, we'll be taking a look at the best teams against the spread this season, and there are just two teams that are covering at a higher rate than 60.0 percent this season.

However, there are 16 teams so far this season that have covered the spread at a 50.0 percent clip or higher.

Who should bettors look to target when betting the spread in the NBA? We've got the five best teams in each category below:

If you’re looking to bet on any NBA team, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $200 in bonus bets -- if their bet wins.

Sign up for FanDuel now!

NBA Best Teams Against the Spread Overall This Season

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2).
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2). / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
  • Orlando Magic: 35-18 (66.0% cover rate)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: 32-20-1 (61.5% cover rate)
  • Utah Jazz: 30-22-1 (57.7% cover rate)
  • Philadelphia 76ers 30-22 (57.7% cover rate)
  • New Orleans Pelicans: 30-22-1 (57.7% cover rate)

Orlando has been elite against the spread with the team overperforming expectations to start the season, but there is one team in this group that could fall off.

The Sixers won’t have Joel Embiid for the foreseeable future, and the team is just a 5-13 overall record without him this season. If the team is set as an underdog more often, it’ll be interesting to see how it performs ATS. 

NBA Best Teams Against the Spread As Favorites This Season

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson.
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson. / John Jones-USA TODAY Sports
  • San Antonio Spurs: 4-1 (80.0% cover rate)
  • Orlando Magic: 14-4 (77.8% cover rate) 
  • Utah Jazz: 10-4 (71.4 % cover rate)
  • New York Knicks: 21-11 (65.6% cover rate)
  • Philadelphia 76ers: 24-13 (64.9 percent cover rate)

There are some familiar teams here – but there is a reason for concern with Philly since it will be an underdog more often with Embiid out. 

The New York Knicks have a large sample size as a favorite, arguably making the team’s record more impressive than Utah, Orlando or San Antonio. It’s interesting that the 10-win Spurs are 4-1 ATS when favored, they clearly can beat teams oddsmakers believe are worse than them. 

NBA Best Teams Against the Spread As Home Favorites This Season

Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen.
Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen. / Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports
  • Utah Jazz: 7-2 (77.8% cover rate)
  • Brooklyn Nets: 9-3 (75.0% cover rate)
  • Orlando Magic: 9-3 (75.0% cover rate)
  • San Antonio Spurs: 3-1 (75.0% cover rate)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: 15-7 (68.2% cover rate)
  • Philadelphia 76ers: 15-7 (68.2% cover rate)

Brooklyn enters the conversation here, although the Nets haven’t been finding themselves favored a lot this season. They sit in the No. 11 seed in the East. 

Orlando has really done well when favored this season, showing up in the top five ATS in almost every category as a favorite.  

NBA Best Teams Against the Spread As Road Favorites This Season

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
  • Dallas Mavericks: 11-2 (84.6% cover rate)
  • Orlando Magic: 5-1 (83.3% cover rate)
  • New York Knicks: 9-3 (75.0% cover rate)
  • Chicago Bulls: 6-2 (75.0% cover rate)
  • Indiana Pacers: 5-2 (71.4% cover rate)

Honorable mention (only one  game as road fav): San Antonio Spurs: 1-0 (100% cover rate)

Simple takeaway: Orlando is a must bet as a favorite this season. The team has covered at a 75% or better rate in every situation as a favorite. 

New York, Dallas, Chicago and Indiana have all thrived on the road, with the Mavericks really looking impressive with a handful of road favorite covers (against Philly, New York and Brooklyn).

NBA Best Teams Against the Spread As Underdogs This Season

Golden State Warriors center Draymond Green.
Golden State Warriors center Draymond Green. / John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
  • Golden State Warriors: 14-6-1 (70.0% cover rate)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: 10-5-1 (66.7% cover rate)
  • New Orleans Pelicans: 15-8-1 (65.2% cover rate)
  • Sacramento Kings: 9-6 (60.0% cover rate)
  • Orlando Magic: 21-14 (60.0% cover rate)

We’re used to Golden State being favored often, but the team has thrived as a dog this season, especially as of late with the team climbing back into the play-in conversation in the Western Conference, winning seven of its last 10 games. 

The Pelicans have thrived as dogs – not favorites – for their impressive season-long ATS record. Also, how about those Magic?

NBA Best Teams Against the Spread As Home Underdogs This Season

Houston Rockets forward Dillon Brooks (9) and center Alperen Sengun.
Houston Rockets forward Dillon Brooks (9) and center Alperen Sengun. / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: 3-0 (100% cover rate)
  • Utah Jazz: 11-4 (73.3% cover rate)
  • Indiana Pacers: 7-3-1 (70.0% cover rate)
  • Chicago Bulls: 7-3-1 (70.0% cover rate)
  • Houston Rockets: 9-4 (69.2% cover rate)

A couple of first-time additions to this list! 

Minnesota and Houston have thrived straight up as home teams, so it makes sense that they’d have strong records as underdogs as well. 

NBA Best Teams Against the Spread As Road Underdogs This Season

Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma.
Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma. / Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
  • Golden State Warriors: 10-4 (71.4% cover rate)
  • New Orleans Pelicans: 10-4-1 (71.4% cover rate)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder: 7-3-1 (70.0% cover rate)
  • Washington Wizards: 16-9-1 (64.0% cover rate)
  • Sacramento Kings: 8-5 (61.5% cover rate)

The biggest note here may be Washington, who is going to be an underdog in nearly every road game, but the team has done an impressive job covering the spread. The Wizards did trade Daniel Gafford at the deadline, so that could hurt the squad going forward. 

Stay tuned with this series I’ll be doing for BetSided through the All-Star break. I’ll be discussing the worst teams ATS, the best OVER teams, the best UNDER teams and the best teams at home and on the road!


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.