Best NFC North Futures for the 2024 Season (Caleb Williams has Bears Thinking Playoffs Quickly)

There's arguably no division more interesting than the NFC North this season.

The Lions and Packers are coming off of resurgent seasons, while the Bears and Vikings are breaking in exciting rookie quarterbacks. With so much chaos set to ensure, it can be challenging to find solid bets, but let's take a look at one line for each team that should provide you with some value.

All odds via DraftKings and accurate as of 1pm ET on June 5, 2024

Bears to Win NFC North (+265)

As my own tweet reminds us, the odds are that an NFL team is going to go from finishing last in their division in 2023 to topping it in 2024. Six of the eight cellar dwellers from last year should be in trouble once more this year, and the Bengals should step up to a degree but there are still two bona-fide contenders in the AFC North.

Trends aside, the Bears have the best roster in the division, and by the end of the season, the consensus very well could be that Caleb Williams is the best signal caller in the division. He'll be throwing to a crazy receiving corps of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet, and working behind a deeply underrated offensive line, which had some great performances down the stretch last season.

The defense also improved tremendously in the second half of the season after adding edge rusher Montez Sweat. General manager Ryan Poles also did a fantastic job of retaining talent this offseason with key names like Jaylon Johnson coming back for another year.

Chicago also has the benefit of a last-place schedule; while the Lions are visiting the Cowboys, the Bears will get the Commanders. The Packers take on the Dolphins, and in their place, the Bears catch the Patriots. It's a new era in Chicago, one that involves topping the division for the first time since 2018 and just the second since 2010.

Packers to Miss the Playoffs (+125)

The Packers scraped into the postseason as the 7th seed, viewed as an afterthought, and then proceeded to annihilate a Cowboys team that perennially disappoints, put in a good half against the 49ers and then folded down the stretch. Now, they're being viewed by as one of the NFL's most complete teams and a true contender. Why exactly?

The offensive skill talent in Green Bay is good but not great, and the o-line could very well take a step back this season. Perhaps most importantly, we'll be learning soon whether the book is out on quarterback Jordan Love after impressing in his first full season at the helm.

Coach Matt LaFleur also needs to prove that he can achieve at a high level without Aaron Rodgers; they were only 9-8 last season, a record that may not get them into even the last seed in what should be a much-improved NFC.

More pointedly, the division is going to be tougher, and the Packers can't afford to drop home divisional games, something they did twice last year; going 3-0 in Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit is probably not on the menu again.

Lions Over 10.5 Wins (-120)

After pulling off their best season in ages, if not in the entire Super Bowl era, the Lions are textbook regression candidates.

All it would take for Detroit to go under this line would be a decrease of two wins, which is certainly in the realm of possibility as they step up to a first-place schedule for the first time.

However, there's reason to believe that the Lions can follow up last year with similar levels of success.

Jared Goff's reputation as a dome specialist is well-deserved, and it might come back to bite Detroit in the postseason when it matters most, but that has nothing to do with their win total. In the regular season, they could play as few as three games outdoors- the Bears, Packers, and 49ers all have outdoor stadiums.

Of course, San Francisco isn't really the harsh winter environment in which Goff struggles, so we may not see an "outdoor Goff" performance regardless- not that the Lions would be favored against the 49ers even indoors. The Cardinals, Colts, Texans and Cowboys all have at the very least retractable roofs.

One of the games placed in Detroit's way to make things tough for them as a defending division champ might be a bit easier than expected- their game against an AFC division champ, created by the 17-game schedule, is against a regression-destined Bills squad in Detroit.

In-division regression could be a concern given the rising tide lifting all of the division's boats, but the Lions dropped a game to both the Bears and Packers last year, and were a very attainable 4-2 in NFC North play.

Another general indicator that a team might take a step back is overperformance in one-score games, but Detroit was just around .500 in such scenarios With an improved secondary after a great draft, expect Detroit to be right back in the thigk of the playoff hunt once more.

JJ McCarthy Under 2,825.5 Passing Yards (-110)

First, let's talk about the task at hand.

If McCarthy can average 200 yards per game, he'd need to play in about 14 to hit this number. If he can average 225, he'd only need 12.5 games, and he could get it done in 11.5 if he can average 250 per outing.

Those lower two averages should be extremely doable once he gets the starting job; the Vikings have one of the best pass-catching groups in the NFL with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson and Aaron Jones, a solid offensive line, and a phenomenal offensive coach in Kevin O'Connell.

So when can we expect McCarthy to get the starting job? There's plenty of reason to believe that he could benefit from the time-honored practice of sitting for awhile, as did the likes of Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, and even legends like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

That being said, he's also the only top prospect coming out of a true pro-style system in his class. Additionally, after the Vikings signed Jefferson to an extension that conveniently ends as soon as McCarthy would be due more than his base rookie salary, it's clear that they're looking for him to be their young quarterback's top target as he adjusts to the league.

The issue is that Minnesota's opening schedule is absolutely brutal. After a road opener at the Giants, the Vikings host the 49ers and Texans before traveling to Green Bay. Then, there's a homestand against the Jets, who bolster an elite defense, and the Lions.

After that, the schedule lightens up a bit, but earning the job any later than the Detroit game would make this line just about impossible for McCarthy to reach. Unless he's given the job for opening day right out of camp, which does not feel likely given the addition of a veteran like Darnold, expect it to be a good, long wait for McCarthy, making this line a tough one to crack even if he does play well.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.