Best NFL Over/Under Bets to Make for Week 4

If you've read what I wrote on team totals for this week, you know that under has been the way to go early in the 2024 season.

I also expect offenses to adjust and for the league to get closer to the scoring of last season, but the big question is when will that happen?

Matchups also matter in this equation and looking at this week's slate I lean heavily to the unders.

Maybe in the moment it's not as fun as betting overs and hoping the points roll in, but it pays the same when you win.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts Game Total Preview and Prediction

Indianapolis comes in averaging 19.3 points per game and the Steelers just 17.0, so right off the bat the total of those two are below the 39.5 total assigned to this game.

But more than that, is the quarterback matchup of Anthony Richardson and Justin Fields, not to mention the Steelers defense which is number 1 in yards allowed at just 229.7 per game.

The Colts defense is more questionable, but while they've given up yards, they are in the top half of the league in fewest points allowed.

A number this low means a sweat will likely be involved and there is a concern that a defensive touchdown could ruin this bet.

PICK: Steelers vs Colts UNDER 40 points

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Game Total Preview and Prediction

These two teams average 44.3 points per game between the two of them, but quarterback Justin Herbert is day to day with an ankle injury.

Even if Herbert plays it's questionable how effective he'll be, as his passing yards in the first three games are: 144, 130 and 125.

The Chargers scored 48 points in their first two games against the woeful Raiders and Panthers, but totaled only 10 against the Steelers last week.

The Chiefs meanwhile have averaged 25 points per game on their way to 3-0, but this offense has become more of a long slow slog versus bombs away and will miss Isiah Pacheco.

PICK: Chiefs vs Chargers UNDER 40 points

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Game Total Prediction and Pick

This will probably be the most controversial of the three picks today as these two teams combine for 61 points per game early in the season.

Yet the total for this game is only 46.5, which begs the question of why?

First, the Buffalo Bills will not average 37.3 points throughout the season, so expect some regression there, especially with this game being in Baltimore.

Second, the Ravens offense which has scored in the mid-twenties in all three games, will face a much stiffer defense in the Bills, who are tied for 8th best in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed.

Both teams will play closer to the vest and more conservative than they have to date, that's the way these two teams play each other as five of the last six between these two teams have hit the under.

Pick: Bills vs Colts UNDER 46.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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