The Pittsburgh Steelers are a big home underdog to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady in Week 6. Tom Brady has owned Pittsburgh throughout his career, but Mike Tomlin has a great record as a home underdog, something's got to give, but maybe that makes it a stay away. It is for me and instead I’m leaning into the prop market in a game with a 24-year-old rookie quarterback in Kenny Pickett against Tom Brady in his 23rd NFL season.
Best Prop Bets For Buccaneers vs. Steelers
- Leonard Fournette Over 63.5 Rush Yards
- Najee Harris Under 61.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115)
- Tom Brady Over 25.5 Completions (-115)
Leonard Fournette Over 63.5 Rush Yards
The Steelers aren’t one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL like they were last year, but they are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 646 yards on the ground. The Bucs could not run the ball two weeks ago against Kansas City and Fournette only had 56 yards last week. A lot of the burden has been on Tom Brady, but I’m certain that Todd Bowles wants to establish the run this week and there is no way that Devin Bush will make a tackle on Leonard Fournette.
The Bills offense had their way with Pittsburgh last week and I don’t see any reason that it will be different going up against Tampa Bay this week.
Najee Harris Under 62.5 Rush+Rec Yards
What a waste of a draft pick this was for Pittsburgh. Najee Harris hasn’t been explosive at all, he has lacked vision when there are holes to run through and an undrafted free-agent, Jaylen Warren, out-snapped him in Week 5.
Warren will be on the field more as the season goes along because he’s been the more explosive runner and crucially the better pass blocker. There isn’t much of a prop market around Warren to take advantage of yet, but fading Najee Harris is the next best thing.
Tom Brady Over 25.5 Completions (-115)
For some reason, Mike Tomlin has always defended Tom Brady by dropping back into a shell zone and letting him have whatever he wants underneath. The game plan never works, unless the pass rush dominates, which will not happen with TJ Watt still out. Brady has been throwing the ball a ton, he has over 30 completions in his last three games and that won’t change against the Steelers banged up secondary.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change