Championship Sunday is here!
Strap in, because we have two great football games to watch. Things will start off with a banger of an AFC Championship between Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The NFC Championship will wrap up today's action when the Detroit Lions take on the 49ers in San Francisco.
If you want my best bet on a side for each game, you'll find them in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets." In this article, I'm going to focus on my best player props for the two games.
If you want to get in on the action, be sure to sign up for an account at Caesars Sportsbook. If you do so using the link below, Caesars will cover your first bet for you, up to $1,000!
NFL Best Player Props Today
- Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 rushing yards
- Patrick Mahomes UNDER 244.5 passing yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush OVER 14.5 yards
- Brock Purdy OVER 275.5 passing yards
Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 rushing yards
The path to victory for the Chiefs is to run the ball early and often. The Ravens rank 23rd in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.4 yards per rush, while also ranking in the bottom half of the league in opponent rush EPA and opponent success rate.
Pacheco has surpassed 62.5 rushing yards in four of his last five starts and has averaged 66.8 rushing yards per game. That means all he has to do is hit his season average and this bet will be a winner.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 244.5 passing yards
Patrick Mahomes is set to face his toughest challenge of the season so far. In my opinion, the Ravens have the best secondary in the NFL. They give up just 5.2 yards per pass attempt, the fewest in the league, while also giving up just 191 passing yards per game.
Mahomes is having his worst statistical year of his career, averaging only 261.4 passing yards per game. A lot of that isn't on him, as he has by far the worst receiving core he's had to work with.
I'm going to do the unthinkable and fade the best quarterback in the NFL.
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush OVER 14.5 yards
Jahmyr Gibbs doesn't get a ton of carries, but he seems to make the most of them every week. That's why we should bet on his longest rush instead of the total amount of rushing yards he will accumulate.
Gibbs has had a rush of at least 15 yards long in 12-of-17 games this season, including a 31-yard touchdown scamper against the Buccaneers last week. This might just be the best value bet on the board as he's typically good for one explosive run each game he plays in.
Brock Purdy OVER 275.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy and the 49ers should have a field day against this Lions secondary. Detroit comes in the game ranking 30th in opponent yards per pass attempt and in the bottom five in both opponent dropback EPA and opponent dropback success rate. They also give up the second-most passing yards in the game at 256.9.
Say what you want about Purdy, but he leads the NFL in virtually every single passing statistic, including yards per attempt (9.6), yards per completion (13.9), quarterback rating, and QBR. I think he has a chance to soar over this number today.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!