We have arrived at Super Bowl 58 and we are flush with betting content on the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
A mediocre week during the Conference Championship games accomplished one thing. It assured a positive record for the season on my NFL bets for the season, and I'm here to share my favorite bet for the Super Bowl, a team total wager on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense against an underwhelming 49ers defense.
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Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick
As most sports bettors are, I'm a numbers-based bettor, one that believes history can tell us something about the future, or at least point us in the right direction.
That said, I also pride myself on blending an analytical approach to betting with the very technically named "eyeball test".
Meaning, while I'm a believer in the old adage that humans remember highlights and analytics remember every play, I'm also a believer that not everything can be measured and distilled into a number.
So, as I watched Patrick Mahomes complete pass after pass against the Baltimore Ravens, this incredibly insightful, analytical-based thought came to mind: "He's not going to let them lose".
Two drives, 26 plays, 161 yards and 2 touchdowns later the Chiefs had 14 points on the board after two drives.
I've spent most of the season telling anyone who would listen that this is not the Kansas City offense of old, that this team is based on defense, not Mahomes and the offense that appeared to be held together by duct tape and bailing wire throughout the regular season.
But a funny thing happened on the way to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs offense, as basic as it is, has come to life.
The team hung 27 points in the frigid temperatures in Buffalo after scoring 26 degrees in artic conditions against the Dolphins. While it wasn't an offensive explosion, the offense did enough to get past the best defense in the Ravens.
Sure, the Chiefs totaled only 17 points in the game, but let's face it the Chiefs played a different game after taking the lead and getting a break or two.
The Chiefs aren't fancy. It's Isaiah Pacheco up the middle, a Mahomes pass to Kelce and a Mahomes scramble. It's not rocket science, but it's effective.
As a bonus, the game will be played in perfect conditions, indoors on a field in an arena that's conducive to kickers and that's a recipe for a team total over on the Chiefs side.
The Kansas City offense has morphed from borderline unwatchable to fascinating, as you wonder how it continues to work week after week.
At some point, you have to put the metrics aside and understand what you're seeing and how it defies the league norms.
This week the sample size is one and I'm betting on Mahomes, Kelce and the Chiefs to get to 24 points and go over its team total.
PICK: Chiefs Team Total OVER 23.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Marty's Bets here!