Best NFL Team Total Bets to Make for Week 16 (How to Bet Bills, Bengals and More)

Narratives become important this time of the season as some teams have more to play for than others. Here's how to use that in the team total market.

Dec 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to throw
Dec 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks to throw / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

With three weeks left in the regular season NFL teams on the periphery of the playoffs know it's time to make their move.

To that end, Week 16 will go a long way towards telling us which teams are ready to make that leap and which are pretenders that will wait another season.

One of the ways to bet bet on teams that you believe are contender (and fade the pretenders) is by taking a team total in the games this week.

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Here are six team totals I like this week:

Bengals vs. Steelers Team Total Prediction

Right off the bat, I'm going contrarian in this Saturday afternoon matchup of division rivals that has defensive struggle written all over it.

Before Jake Browning led the Cincinnati Bengals past the Jacksonville Jaguars in overtime, he led the Bengals in a 16-10 home loss to Pittsburgh.

Now Browning has to face a top-10 Steelers defense on the road, perhaps without Ja'Marr Chase.

Injuries work both ways and the Steelers secondary is banged up, providing opportunity for Browning and the Bengal receivers.

Since that loss to the Steelers back on Nov. 26, the Bengals have scored 34, 34 and 27 points.

It won't be easy and it may be raining, but the Bengals make it to 20 points.

Pick: Bengals OVER 19.5 points

Bills vs. Chargers Team Total Prediction

I've been all over the Bills as an undervalued team and that's shown up on the field in the last two weeks in wins at the Chiefs and a systematic dismantling of the Cowboys at home last week.

Surely, they'll crush the lowly Chargers, who have a new coach and a defense that gave up 63 to the Raiders, right?

The Bills average just 24.3 points per game on the road and human nature tells me this situation is ripe for a letdown on the Buffalo side and a dead cat bounce for the Chargers.

Pick: Bills UNDER 27.5 points

Browns vs. Texans Team Total Prediction

What a feel-good story the Texans are as they strive to finish strong and sneak into the playoffs. Who saw this coming after the disaster of recent seasons? It just goes to show you that coaching matters.

Last week, the Texans were my only loss and it took every second of overtime for Houston to get to 19 and beat the Titans.

With C.J. Stroud likely to still be out again this week, Case Keenum will be called upon to face a Cleveland defense that is far and away the leader in fewest yards allowed per game.

I can see the Texans winning an ugly, low scoring affair, but I struggle to see them getting to 23 points.

Pick: Texans UNDER 22.5 points

Commanders vs. Jets Team Total Prediction

The Commanders are 23rd in the league in scoring, but are a little better at putting points on the board on the road this season.

The Jets have given up 18.5 on average at home, so it would seem like the Commanders have a good chance to exceed the team total of 17.5.

I would agree, except for that pesky .5 on the end and believe yards and points will be tough to come by against this Jets defense that allows the seventh fewest yards in the league.

Pick: Commanders UNDER 17.5 points

Patriots vs Broncos Team Total Prediction

The Patriots offense has been bad all season, but it's stagnated even more over the last three games, averaging just 255.3 yards per contest, second worst in the league to the Jets.

New England also owns the worst-scoring offense in the league during that stretch, scoring just 12.7 points per game. Yikes.

Now, the Pats have to travel across the country and play at altitude against a Broncos team that is playing for their playoff lives in a game that matters just about zero to the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots UNDER 13.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Marty's Bets here!