Best NFL Thanksgiving Bets Today (Predictions for all 3 Turkey Day Games)

Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers safety Ji'Ayir Brown (27) celebrates
Nov 19, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers safety Ji'Ayir Brown (27) celebrates / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Strap in folks, we have some Turkey to eat and NFL games to bet on.

If you're looking to place a bet on each of the three games today, you've come to the right place. I'm going to break down my best bet for each one, starting with the afternoon clash in the NFC North between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

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NFL Picks for Thanksgiving Day

  • Packers +8 vs. Lions
  • Cowboys -12.5 vs. Commanders
  • 49ers -6.5 vs. Seahawks

Packers vs. Lions prediction

The Lions are a good team, but they do have some red flags and holes that need to be addressed. Mainly, their defense is subpar at best, ranking 16th in opponent EPA/Play, 24th in opponent success rate, and 16th in opponent yards per play.

Their offense is clearly enough to still lead them to wins even when their defense doesn't hold up their end of the bargain, but covering spreads of higher than a touchdown is a different story.

Meanwhile, I think the Packers are better than their record indicates. They're 12th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season at +0.1 and ninth in Net Yards per Play over their last three games (+0.7). What should concern Lions fans the most is they rank ninth in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.2) as their secondary has been stingy.

I set the Lions as a 6.5-point favorite so we're getting a point and a half of value on this line that crosses the key numbers of seven. Give me the Packers and the points.

PICK: Packers +8

Commanders vs. Cowboys prediction

I've been much lower on the Commanders than most people have been all season and I'm not about to change my mind now.

Their defense is atrocious, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent yards per play. Most notably, they're 30th in opponent EPA per dropback and 28th in opponent yards per pass attempt. This Cowboys offense is going to be able to carve them up.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys pass rush is going to eat up this Commanders offensive line that is giving up the second most sacks per game this season. I can't see how Washington plans to go toe-to-toe with this team.

I'll take Dallas to cover the double-digit spread on Thanksgiving.

PICK: Cowboys -12.5

49ers vs. Seahawks prediction

The 49ers are officially back and we can put that midseason slump out of our minds. For what it's worth, I think this is the best team in the NFL. Their offense leads the NFL in EPA/Play and their defense is fifth in opponent EPA/Play. The Cowboys are the only other team that's in the top five in both of those stats.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been trending in the exact opposite direction. They're 25th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play over their last three games at -0.7 and this seems to be a trend for the Seahawks the past couple of years, especially last season when they went 3-5 down the stretch to limp into the playoffs.

It's not just their offense either, their defense has also allowed 5.8 yards per play over their last three games and their run defense, which looked elite early the season, now looks abysmal.

Give me the 49ers to roll over the Seahawks on Thanksgiving night.

PICK: 49ers -6.5

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!