Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bet Today (Stars Set as Surprising Underdogs in Game 4 vs. Oilers)
Game 4 of the Western Conference Final is set to take place on Wednesday night and after an overtime win in Game 3, the Stars hold the 2-1 series lead.
Despite that, Dallas is set as the betting underdog ahead of tonight's pivotal showdown. Should we back the Stars at plus-money, or do we trust the Oilers to even up the series? Let's dive into my answer.
All odds in this article are via Caesars Sportsbook
NHL Best Bet Today
- Stars +115 vs. Oilers
Stars vs. Oilers prediction
A lot of the advanced metrics slightly favor the Oilers. For example, they have an expected goal differential of +0.36 per 60 minutes of play while also sporting a CORSI% of 55.67%. If you want to bet based on those metrics, then I recommend backing Edmonton as a home favorite.
With that being said, I simply can't look past the goaltending matchup. The Oilers are a solid goalie away from being the best team in the NHL, but instead they have Stuart Skinner between the pipes who has an .885 save percentage in this postseason. He was solid in the first two games this series, but then he showed his true colors when he allowed four goals on 21 shots in Game 3.
Goalie Rants Vol. 5: The weakness I see in Stuart Skinner's game pic.twitter.com/vuL3fMn01V
— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) May 29, 2024
Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger of the Stars has been fantastic with a .923 save percentage in the playoffs and he's put together three straight great starts in this series.
The underlying metrics between these two teams are close enough that I won't hesitate the team with the significantly better goalie at plus-money.
Pick: Stars +115
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!