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Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Back Stars as Underdogs in Western Conference Finals Game 3)

Breaking down the best side and total bet for Game 3 of the NHL's Western Conference Final between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars.

By Iain MacMillan

May 25, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars center Sam Steel (18) and Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (2) chase the puck during the second period in game two of the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
May 25, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars center Sam Steel (18) and Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (2) chase the puck during the second period in game two of the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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The Western Conference Final heads to Edmonton, Alberta for tonight's Game 3 with the series tied up at 1-1.

The Stars got the better of the Oilers in Game 2, beating them on their home ice by a final score of 3-1. Now with the series heading to Canada, the Stars will look to win a second-straight game tonight to regain the series lead and home ice advantage.

Should we back the Stars as underdogs? That's what I'm here to find out. Let's dive into it.

Best NHL Bets Today

  • Stars +110 vs. Oilers
  • UNDER 5.5 (-105)

Odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Oilers vs. Stars Prediction

Stars +110 vs. Oilers

Despite Game 3 being in Edmonton tonight, I like the Stars as underdogs. The series has been as close as they come through the first two games with the Oilers holding an expected goal differential advantage of just +0.22 per 60 minutes of play. While they have had a slight edge in the advanced metrics, the goaltending play between the two teams is giving Dallas a significant advantage.

Jake Oettinger continues to stand on his head, sporting a save percentage in this series of .940. Stuart Skinner has also been playing well, with a save percentage of .913, but we have seen some flashes of him playing poorly, including allowing two weak goals in Game 2.

I'll take the Stars as road underdogs in Game 3.

UNDER 5.5 (-105)

There are two reasons why I like the UNDER. The first of which is how well both goaltenders have been playing in this series. Even Skinner, who has allowed a couple of weak goals, has still for the most part been solid in between the pipes.

The second reason is that neither team is creating a ton of high-dangers scoring opportunities. They have combined for just 21.77 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. There's also combining for just 5.76 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Give me the UNDER 5.5.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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