Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Blackhawks are Strong Underdog Play)
After a tough start to the NHL season with my bets, I've caught fire and have clawed my way back to being profitable.
I've gone 22-9 for +11.01 units over the past two weeks to bring my overall season-to-date record to 51-43-1 for +2.01 units. Now, the challenge is to try to stay hot and keep my winning ways going the rest of the season.
We have a handful of games to watch and bet on Sunday and I have three wagers locked in that I'm ready to break down.
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Best NHL Picks Today
- Blackhawks +132 vs. Blues
- Hurricanes -1.5 (-115) vs. Blue Jackets
- Jets -115 vs. Predators
Blues vs. Blackhawks prediction
I have been in full "fade the Blues" mode for the past couple of weeks. I don't think they're nearly as good as their 10-8-1 record indicates and there are plenty of numbers to back that up. For example, they're 30th in CORSI% and 29th in expected goal differential when you look at 5-on-5 play if you adjust for score and venue.
With that being said, I'm not going to deny they aren't a better team than the Blackhawks, but I think the correct number for Chicago playing at home would be closer to around +125 than the current available price of +132 that's available.
I'm lower on the Blues than the betting market seems to be so I'll once again fade them and take a shot on the Blackhawks as home underdogs.
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes prediction
I generally try to avoid puck line bets but this matchup is too lopsided for me to resist.
The Hurricanes have had some poor luck in the shooting and goaltending department, but their play between the blue lines is still second to none. In 5-on-5 score and venue adjusted numbers, Carolina ranks first in CORSI%, second in expected goal differential, and third in high-danger scoring chances allowed.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets rank in the bottom 10 in all three of those stats and with Elvis Merzlikins expected to start inbetween the pipes, I don't think the Hurricanes' shooting issues will be a problem for them in this one.
I'll back Carolina to win by at least two goals.
Jets vs. Predators prediction
The Jets and the Predators are two extremely similar teams this season, but the Jets have the advantage in a couple of stats and there's one key area that is extremely concerning for Predators.
Heading into today's game, the Predators rank 29th in the NHL in penalty kill. allowing teams to score 26.56% of the time they have the man advantage. Only the Sharks, Islanders, and Wild rank worse in that stat, which is not exactly great company to be in.
Also, with today's expected goaltending matchup of Connor Hellebuyck and Juuse Saros, backing the better shooting team may be a smart move and that's one of the key areas the Jets have been better in. They're eighth in the league in shooting percentage at 11.48% while the Preds come in at 13th at 10.83%.
Give me the Jets to get the job done tonight.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!