Enough is enough. It's time to get back on track in the NHL. We didn't get reverse swept last night, but a 1-2 record with the only win being a sizable home favorite isn't going to get the job done.
Tonight, we're upping the ante and locking in four bets for the Tuesday night slate, including a few tasty underdogs.
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Best NHL Bets Tonight
- Maple Leafs +140 vs. Rangers
- Hurricanes -125 vs. Senators
- Predators -130 vs.Flyers
- Lightning +110 vs. Canucks
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers prediction
I've been claiming all season that the Maple Leafs were the most overvalued team in the betting market, but now I think it has overcorrected to the point where there is value in betting on Toronto.
Tonight is a spot where this high-powered offense can take advantage of the Rangers, who have struggled defensively during 5-on-5 play lately. Over their last 10 games, they're 29th in adjusted 5-on-5 expected goals against. They're also allowing 13.08 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.
That's not going to fly against this Maple Leafs offense and I think now is a great time to take a shot on Toronto as a road underdog.
Hurricanes vs. Senators prediction
I am confused by the odds in this game. Sure, the Hurricanes are just 14-12-1 on the season, but they've been one of the best teams in the NHL this season from an analytics perspective. When looking at adjusted 5-on-5 numbers, they're first in CORSI%, first in FENWICK%, and third in expected goal percentage.
Their cold shooting and bad goaltending has cost them so far this season, ranking dead last in the NHL in PDO, but I expect positive regression in a big way from this team and it's time to start buying low on them.
I'll take Carolina as a short road favorite against an average-at-best Senators squad.
Flyers vs. Predators prediction
The Philadelphia Flyers and Nashville Predators are similarly ranked teams in a lot of advanced analytics. Still, the Flyers are starting to hit a cold streak with their shooting, and now is not the time for that to happen when they face a Predators team that has Juuse Saros in the net.
Over their last 10 games, the Flyers rank 29th in shooting percentage, scoring on just 7.58% of shots on goal. They've also managed to average only 11.43 high-danger scoring chances per game over that stretch, which ranks 22nd in the NHL.
We can take advantage of a regressing offense by backing Nashville at home tonight, so that's exactly what I'm going to do.
Lightning vs. Canucks prediction
Yes, I still think the Canucks are massively over-performing. They still lead the NHL by a mile in PDO, which suggests regression is coming their way. They simply can't keep up a shooting percentage of 13.44% while also getting stellar play between the pipes at the same time.
Now, they play a Lightning team that's trending in the right direction, ranking 10th in the league in CORSI% over their last 10 games. Over that stretch, the Canucks come in at 20th.
I'll back the Lightning as underdogs in Vancouver tonight.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!