Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Should We Bet on the Sharks Again?)
We're starting to get hot in the NHL, going 3-0 with my picks on Sunday, and as a result have almost completely dug ourselves out of the hole I put us in early in the season. A big night tonight and we're back in the green for the season.
Tonight is a chance for me to put my money where my mouth is. I've claimed the Vancouver Canucks are the most fraudulent team I've ever seen in my life and now they face the worst team in the league in the San Jose Sharks.
Do we take the Sharks as massive underdogs? You're gosh darn right we do.
If you want to jump in on the action, I recommend doing so at FanDuel Sportsbook. For a limited time, if you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins!
NHL Picks Today
- Lightning +115 vs. Bruins
- Kings vs. Coyotes UNDER 6.5 (-110)
- Sharks +310 vs. Canucks
Lightning +115 vs. Bruins
This past weekend I wrote the first edition of my NHL Fraud Rankings, and if you take a look at that article, then you'll see five teams I'll generally be fading for the next few weeks until I feel their odds reflect a true evaluation of their ability and not their inflated records.
The Bruins are certainly one of those teams, whose actual goal differential per 60 minutes of play as +1.02 higher than their expected goal differential per game.
Their success this season has been largely thanks to stellar goaltender play, but now they have to face a Lightning team that ranks fourth in the league in shooting percentage, finding the back of the net on 11.75% of their shots on goal. That's worrisome news for Boston.
I'll take a shot on the Lightning as home underdogs.
Kings vs. Coyotes UNDER 6.5 (-110)
The Kings have been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL so far this season, ranking second in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.68) and fifth in actual goes against (2.59). They also allow the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at 9.24.
For the time being, any time we see a total of 6.5 in a game involving the Kings, the UNDER could be worth a play if the odds are right around a pick'em, which is where it's set at for tonight's game.
Sharks +310 vs. Canucks
There's no denying the Sharks are the worst team in the NHL and that the Canucks should be favored, but I can't resist taking a shot on the Sharks as around +300 underdogs to beat the most fraudulent team in the NHL.
The Canucks' goal differential is +1.75 better than their expected goal differential per 60 minutes of play. That is some insane and unsustainable luck. This Canucks team is going to come crashing down and we may have already seen the beginning of that, considering they've lost two-straight games coming into tonight.
I'm just going to pretend that 10-1 beat down by the Canucks against the Sharks earlier this month didn't happen. Instead, I'm going to focus on the fact these two teams are first and last in "PDO," the stat that some people consider the "luck" stat.
Regression will come for both teams and correctly betting on the Sharks to win tonight would be a glorious moment.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!