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Top Shelf Picks: Best NHL Bets Today (Stars Will Beat Golden Knights in Game 4)

Breaking down the best bets for NHL Playoff action on Monday night including Game 4 between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.

By Iain MacMillan

Apr 27, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) celebrates his
Apr 27, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Dallas Stars center Wyatt Johnston (53) celebrates his / Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
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The New York Rangers are the first team to advance to the second round of the NHL Playoffs after completing the 4-0 sweep against the Washington Capitals.

The Florida Panthers have a chance to join the Rangers tonight when they bring a 3-1 series lead against the Tampa Bay Lightning home to Sunrise. The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights will also face-off in Game 4 as the Stars look to keep the trend going of the road team winning every game in the series.

After a hot start to my NHL Playoff bets, we've come back down to earth and now sit at 17-14 (-0.04 units) heading into Monday night's action.

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NHL Best Bets Today

  • Lightning +160 vs. Panthers
  • Stars -115 vs. Golden Knights

Lightning vs. Panthers prediction

I think the Panthers are rightfully favored to win this game and advanced to the second round, but I can't quite get to their price point. The Lightning, despite being down 3-1, have largely held their own in this series, with the biggest difference maker being the goaltending.

The Panthers have had an expected goal differential of +0.25, which isn't as lopsided a number as I'd need to lay juice on a -190 favorite. If Andrei Vasilevskiy has a strong game for the Lightning and Tampa Bay can figure out a way to get past Sergei Bobrovsky a few times, they're going to be in this game until the end.

I'll back the Lightning to extend this series.

Stars vs. Golden Knights prediction

Despite the Golden Knights holding a 2-1 series lead, the Stars have been the far superior team. They have an average expected goal differential of +1.33, the second highest amongst all first round series. They're scoring 1.31 fewer goals than expected, but those numbers should get closer together the further along the series goes.

The Stars, based on the advanced metrics so far this series, should be much bigger favorites than they are. I'll back Dallas to get the job done and even the series at 2-2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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