If you only follow my NHL picks when I write an article here on BetSided, you should be happy that you do that because I tweeted out three plays on my Twitter yesterday, and they went 0-3. Yikes.
Thankfully, I'm back to writing article today so let's see if we can bounce back in a big way. Speaking of bouncing back, I'm back to betting on the Stars despite them losing each of their last two games.
If you want to tail tonight's plays, you should place your bets over at BetMGM Sportsbook. If you do, you'll get your first bet paid back in bonus bets if it doesn't win, up to $1,500! That way, you can sweat a lot less tailing me tonight.
Best NHL Picks Tonight
- Maple Leafs -130 vs. Senators
- Stars -135 vs. Capitals
- Avalanche -135 vs. Jets
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction
I've been fading my Maple Leafs quite a bit this season so when I find a good spot to bet on them, I have to take advantage of it. Both defenses in this game have been equally bad this season, sporting in an expected goals against during 5-on-5 play of 2.79 and 2.81.
But, it's the Leafs who have been better offensively, averaging 0.21 more expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. The only thing that has been keeping the Senators afloat this season has been their high shooting percentage, but we've already seen some regression in that area in recent weeks. They're 21st in shooting percentage over their last 10 games.
The biggest issue for the Sens tonight could be their penalty kill. They're fifth in the league in penalty kill and now they face one of the most powerplay units in the league in Toronto.
I'll back the Leafs as road favorites in tonight's Battle of Ontario.
Stars vs. Capitals predictions
The Stars have let me down in two-straight games but I'll back them once again against the Capitals tonight. The Capitals haven't been able to score this season, ranking 31st in shooting percentage, finding the back of the net on just 8.14% of shots.
With Jake Oettinger playing last night, the Stars will likely turn to backup goaltender, Scott Wedgewood, which is likely why we can get the Stars are such a short price. Don't let that scare you away, Wedgewood has the exact same save percentage as Oettinger this season at .911.
The Stars are the far superior team. In adjusted 5-on-5 numbers, the Stars rank sixth in expected goals per 60 minutes and the Capitals come in at 26th. This bet is a no-brainer in my opinion.
Jets vs. Avalanche prediction
If you want to fade a team that's trending in the right direction, then go ahead and bet against the Jets tonight. Their expected goals numbers have fallen off a cliff. They have an expected goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play of just 2.17 over their last 10 games, which is the third worst mark in the NHL. Their goaltending has bailed them out on a nightly basis but that can only last for so long.
The Jets' lack of offensive production is going to hurt them tonight when they take on an Avalanche squad that thrives defensively, ranking third in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.
I'll take the Avs as short home favorites.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!