Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Back Starting Pitchers in Both LCS Matchups)
By Ben Heisler
Baseball fans and bettors are graced with two League Championship Series matchups this Wednesday.
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres begin Game 2 of the NLDS in the mid-afternoon, while the New York Yankees head to Houston for a matchup with the Astros in Game 1 of the ALDS.
Both teams feature some of the best hitters in the game, but the pitching matchups today are noteworthy in their own regard. Aaron Nola led all pitchers in baseball with a 6.3 fWAR, or Fangraphs Wins-Above-Replacement metric, and takes on San Diego Padres left-hander Blake Snell, one of only four pitchers in the league with a strikeouts/nine innings of over 12.
In the nightcap, likely AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander of the Astros makes his second start of the postseason against Yankees right-hander Jameson Taillon, who makes his starting debut in the playoffs after pitching out of the bullpen in the ALDS.
Who should we bet to win the battle of the no-run-first-inning (NRFI) vs. yes-run-first-inning (YRFI) in each game? Let's break down the odds below and go into my best NRFI/YRFI bets for today.
Phillies vs. San Diego Padres NRFI/YRFI Odds, Prediction and Pick for NLCS Game 2
We've got afternoon baseball for Game 2 of the NLCS after both pitchers were dominant in Game 1. Zack Wheeler fired seven shutout innings and Yu Darvish allowed a pair of solo home runs as the difference maker in the ballgame.
Today, Aaron Nola takes the bump having not allowed a run in either of his two starts this postseason. He's been excellent in the first inning all season long, particularly on the road. In 16 games, Nola owns a 1.69 ERA in the first inning, with 19 strikeouts and zero walks.
As for his counterpart Blake Snell, the lefty has slight reverse splits with a 3.56 ERA at home compared to a 3.06 on the road. However that doesn't quite tell the full story.
Snell's control has been far better in San Diego, striking out 108 batters to just 26 walks in 81 innings at Petco Park, compared to 63 strikeouts to 25 walks away from home. He also has a better Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 2.73 at home, and xFIP of 3.06, compared to his road numbers of 2.92 and 3.48.
Positive regression is coming his way, and that's on top of a 2.40 ERA in the first inning with opposing hitters averaging .135 against him.
PICK: NRFI -140
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros NRFI/YRFI Odds, Prediction and Pick for ALCS Game 1
I'm seeing many fellow writers and editors in the sports betting industry choose to back the YRFI tonight for a few reasons.
Tonight's starter, Jameson Taillon, currently owns an infinity ERA having not recorded an out his first and only time out, while Astros starter Justin Verlander got rocked early in his first outing against the Seattle Mariners.
Ultimately, I'm not going to take that small of a sample into effect with my decision to go NRFI here, as Verlander allowed two runs at home all season, one of them earned in the first inning; pitching to a 0.60 ERA.
As for Taillon, he wasn't a great first inning pitcher this year, but the numbers were much improved away from Yankee Stadium. In 16 starts, he owns a 3.38 ERA in the first with opponents hitting just .170 off him.
The Astros' bats appear to be locked in, but their best at-bats have come late in games in ideal matchups, rather than in the early going. We can assuredly expect Verlander to do his part, and I'll bet on Taillon to do the same.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.