Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Fade Daniel Lynch, Trust Cristian Javier)
By Joe Summers
We went 2-1 yesterday on No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets as my climb back towards respectability is going quite well! After opening the season ice cold, I'm on a nice run and am starting to get the hang of this NRFI/YRFI thing.
With only six MLB games on the slate for today, the cubbard looks bare. But luckily, I've got a flashlight and can shine some light on the value hiding in the back corner.
Thanks to the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, let's put a spotlight on the best NRFI/YRFI bets of the day:
Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today, June 6
Diamondbacks vs Reds NRFI (+115)
I fully intended to write up a YRFI for this game, but then I saw the odds and looked a bit deeper. It didn't take long before I realized the value is with the NRFI instead. Despite all of Hunter Greene's problems, the NRFI is 7-3 in his 10 starts and 4-1 over his last five.
Arizona's lineup is dangerous, but it usually takes the Diamondbacks a while to get going. They're one of the worst first-inning offenses in the league, scoring a run in only 20% of their road games. But they don't allow many early scores either, giving up a run in the first in 28% of those contests.
The NRFI is 3-1 in Madison Bumgarner's last four outings and he's got one of the league's best defenses behind him. At plus money, I can't pass up the value on a scoreless opening frame.
Blue Jays vs Royals YRFI (-135)
Toronto's lineup is rolling and Royals' starter Daniel Lynch is one of the worst first-inning pitchers in baseball. He's given up 12 runs in the opening frame over nine starts while surrendering three home runs and issuing five walks. The YRFI is 6-3 in those outings, while the Royals have allowed a first-inning run in half of their home games, overall.
The Blue Jays score a run in the first inning at the highest rate in MLB on the road (44%) and should strike early today. But even if they don't, Ross Stripling struggles early on as well. He has a 7.20 ERA in the opening frame and a 6.75 ERA on the road. With the Royals' lineup improving of late, it wouldn't surprise me to see both teams score in the first.
Mariners vs Astros NRFI (-110)
This is a bargain of a line. Seattle will start Robbie Ray, who has the second-lowest ERA in the first inning (0.82) of all starting pitchers. The NRFI is 10-1 in his starts this season and the Astros score a first-inning run at one of the lowest rates in MLB (22.22%).
Seattle is a solid YRFI bet at home, but they've scored a run in the first in less than 19% of their road games. I don't see them scoring against Cristian Javier, who is dominant at home. He has a 0.38 ERA in Houston and since 2020, the NRFI is 12-1 in his home starts. With the league's best defense helping him out, Javier's early dominance should continue.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.