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Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Follow the Trend for Yankees vs. Orioles)

By Ben Heisler

New York Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery has not received much run support from his team's dominant offense; averaging 2.29 runs per game.
New York Yankees pitcher Jordan Montgomery has not received much run support from his team's dominant offense; averaging 2.29 runs per game. / Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
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I'll admit, I've been a little late to the party on the no-run-first-inning (NRFI) and yes-run-first-inning (YRFI) plays this year, but I wasn't going to let my fear of missing out take an opportunity away to jump on board this Thursday.

For today's eight-game slate, I'm targeting two American League matchups, one on each side. Two of the teams involved, the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers each look for their fifth consecutive win. The fun part about these bets is regardless of whether their streak stays alive, we'll know if our bet cashes by the end of the first inning!

Here are my favorite NRFI and YRFI bets for Thursday, with odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Best NRFI & YRFI Bets for Thursday, May 19

  • Yankees vs. Orioles NRFI (-125)
  • Rangers vs. Astros YRFI (-110)

Yankees vs. Orioles NRFI (-125)

The Yankees got all three of the runs they would need in the first inning yesterday against Jordan Lyles, as the YRFI bet cashed in the top half from Baltimore. For Thursday afternoon, I'll go back to the well with the No. 1 and No. 3 ranked team in NRFI's this year.

Wednesday night was only the second time in the last 10 games the Orioles played in a matchup that allowed a first inning run, and starting pitcher Bruce Zimmermann is off to an excellent start this year with a 2.72 ERA and 3.31 Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP).

Meanwhile, despite the Yankees vaunted offense, they've given starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery very little run support throughout the season. Through seven starts, the Yankees have scored a total of 16 runs; averaging 2.29 per start.

Rangers vs. Astros YRFI (-110)

Rangers starter Glenn Otto is #notgood. His ERA sits at 6.38 this season through four starts, but his expected ERA (xERA) is even higher at 7.73.

He gets an Astros lineup tonight in a climate controlled environment that's No. 1 in Fangraphs WAR this season by a wide margin (8.6 vs. 8.0 for the Yankees).

The Astros, despite ranking 22nd in baseball in first inning scoring, improve by a full 10.7% in first inning runs at home compared to on the road.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have won four straight and are starting to get their highly paid offseason offense going. It's a tough matchup vs. Framber Valdez, but his strikeout per nine innings is the lowest of his career so far in 2022.

While I try to target YRFI props offering plus-odds, I think the matchup sets up nicely for some early runs on either side, cashing regardless of who gets on the board.

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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