Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Blue Jays vs Orioles and Two Other Games to Target)
By Joe Summers
Bang bang, I didn't make a fool of myself yesterday! After publicly expressing appreciation for advice my partner's dad gave me, I went 3-0 on No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets.
I was a bit nervous to be honest, so let's hope these good vibes keep rolling through today's light seven-game MLB slate.
The BetSided team has you covered with previews for each game, but it's time to pick up another clean sweep.
Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite NRFI/YRFI bets of the day:
Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today
Blue Jays vs Orioles YRFI (-125)
Neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Jordan Lyles inspire confidence for the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. Kikuchi ranks in the first percentile in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage. He's got a 5.60 ERA in the first inning and struggles on the road.
Meanwhile, Jordan Lyles has a 5.04 expected ERA and I don't think he can stop Toronto's excellent lineup. The Blue Jays score in the first inning at the second-best rate in MLB (36.11%) and Lyles' MLB Statcast Pitching Profile shows he can be hammered:
Runs should come early and often in this game. Trust each lineup to deliver and back the YRFI.
Nationals vs Cubs YRFI (+100)
I love the over in this matchup and that love extends to the first inning as well.
The Chicago Cubs score in the first inning at the third-highest rate in MLB at home (41.82%) and face Annibal Sanchez, who is one of MLB's worst starters through four outings. The 38-year-old has a 7.65 ERA and has already allowed three runs in the first in just those four starts.
Keegan Thompson is hardly stellar in his own right, compiling a 4.28 expected ERA with a 4.61 ERA in the first inning. The Washington Nationals lineup obviously isn't as deadly without Juan Soto or Josh Bell, but it still scores in the first at the fifth-best rate on the road (32.08%).
With two capable lineups and two pitchers I don't believe in, I'm all over the YRFI at plus odds.
Angels vs Athletics NRFI (-130)
Two bad lineups against two under-the-radar pitchers throwing well? Sign me up for a NRFI bet.
Cole Irvin has a 1.73 ERA at home and a quality start in each of his last six outings. He's in elite company with his fastball and the Los Angeles Angels rank 20th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. With his form, I expect a scoreless first inning.
Opposing Irvin is Jose Suarez, who hasn't allowed an earned run in either of his last two starts, the most recent of which came against these Oakland Athletics. Suarez allowed only two runs in the first inning across his 11 starts so far, so he's strong early on.
Oakland scores in the first inning in only 19.23% of its home games and I don't see its poor lineup breaking things open early. Back the NRFI as each starter continues their respective hot streaks.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.