It’s been a bit of a chaotic ride for the New York Yankees after a postponement to Game 5 of the ALDS. Following Monday's postponement, they’ll play back-to-back-to-back days despite participating in two different series.
On Wednesday, they dropped Game 1 to the Houston Astros 4-2 behind a stellar performance from Justin Verlander, and tonight they are the standalone game. There can only be one No Run First Inning (NRFI) or a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI), so let's break down how I’m betting the single inning prop for this one.
Yankees vs. Astros ALCS Game 2 Best NRFI / YRFI Bet
The sportsbooks have finally settled the odds for NRFI and YRFI bets and have stopped putting far too much value on YRFI bets in the postseason. They were overvaluing the pitchers on the mound and forgetting that these teams also have the best offenses in the league. Tonight with Luis Severino and Framber Valdez, the YRFI side at PointsBet this morning offers the same odds as the NRFI of -115.
Severino gave up a first inning run in his only postseason start, but that came in Game 3 of the ALDS after a long layoff. I previously faded pitchers with extended rest this postseason, but those opportunities are gone now. Severino had a 1.89 ERA in the first inning this season.
Houston starts Valdez tonight which will be a change of pace for New York. So far this postseason, they only have 12 at bats against left-handed pitching. As a team they had a .768 OPS against lefties this season, slightly better than right-handers, but it should take their lineup a few innings to adjust.
Plus, Aaron Judge had another 0-4 last night and has a .617 OPS in the postseason. If his bat isn’t a true threat at the top of the order, then I like the value on the No Run First Inning tonight in Houston.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change