Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today (Phillies vs. Marlins Among Matchups With Value)
By Joe Summers
Look, we're all busy people. We've got things to do, people to see, and bets to cash.
So why wait for an entire baseball game when we can fill our accounts with dollars after the first inning? That's right, it's a beautiful day for some No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets.
We've got a ton of juicy pitching matchups to target. Let's not waste any more time. Using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite NRFI/YRFI bets of the day:
Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today
Phillies vs Marlins NRFI (-145)
Aaron Nola is sort of the first inning king. He's allowed a first-inning run just twice in 18 starts and takes on a Marlins team that scores in the opening frame only 17.78% of the time. He's excellent across the board, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile illustrates that:
For as good as Nola is early on, the Phillies' lineup is nearly as bad. They score a first-inning run in a pathetic 17.39% of their road games, while Trevor Rogers held his opponent scoreless in the first in three of his last four starts.
It's Nola day, so we're rocking with the NRFI.
Mets vs Cubs YRFI (+105)
Two of the league's best first-inning lineups square off against beatable pitchers in David Peterson and Adrian Sampson. The Cubs lead MLB in first-inning scoring percentage, plating a run in just under 45% of their home games, while New York isn't far behind with the sixth-highest opening frame scoring percentage.
Peterson has a 4.50 ERA in the first and is suddenly struggling massively with command, walking eight batters over his last two starts. Sampson has been even worse, amassing a 6.75 ERA in the first while giving up a home run in each of his last three outings.
There’s the record. Pete Alonso drives in his 75th run prior to the all-star break. The previous franchise record was David Wright’s 74 RBI in the first half of 2006. pic.twitter.com/MeMXnY4B7D
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) July 16, 2022
Each lineup is dangerous and with favorable weather conditions, I love getting plus money on a YRFI bet between these clubs.
Brewers vs Giants NRFI (-130)
I don't feel I can trust either offense but I know for certain I can trust each starting pitcher, Aaron Ashby and Logan Webb.
Best changeups by Stuff+ (only physical properties of pitch, defined off fastball), SP:
— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) July 10, 2022
1) Ross Stripling (138!)
2) Sandy Alcantara
3) Logan Webb
4) Aaron Ashby
5) Merrill Kelly
6) Shane Baz
7) Trevor Rogers
8) Bailey Ober
9) David Peterson
10) Logan Gilbert (120)
(updated doc)
Ashby has a 1.64 ERA in the first and held each of his last three opponents scoreless. The Giants score in the first inning in only 23.33% of their games, so I like Ashby's chances to throw up a zero.
But I also love Webb at home. He has a 2.37 ERA at AT&T Park this year and held five of his last six opponents to one run or fewer. Milwaukee scores in the first in just 25% of its road games and I don't see the Brewers getting to Webb in this one.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.