At the risk of sounding too cliché, MLB betting is a wild roller coaster. It was all good just a week ago. I was riding high and all my picks were hitting. Now, I'm in a bit of a slump.
This ride is on the uptick, though, and it's about time to throw our hands up and celebrate a clean sweep of No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets. We've got a tantalizing slate on tap - I'm ready to nail some winners.
Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here are my favorite NRFI/YRFI bets of the day:
Best NRFI and YRFI Bets Today
Reds vs Phillies NRFI (-120)
Cincinnati Reds' lefty Nick Lodolo just threw seven shutout innings against the Philadelphia Phillies and I like his chances to make it eight straight scoreless after the first inning tonight. Lodolo's primary pitch is the sinker, and a majority of the Phillies' lineup really struggles against sinkers. Philadelphia scores in the first inning in less than 28% of their games, so I'll back Lodolo here.
Ranger Suarez should keep Cincinnati's lineup at bay too. He's suddenly one of baseball's hottest pitchers, with a 1.03 ERA over his last six starts. With shutouts in four of those outings, Suarez is straight dominating batters.
Cincy ranks 23rd in OPS against left-handed pitchers in August and score in the first in only 18.64% of its road games. At these odds, we can feel comfortable backing each pitcher to throw up a scoreless opening frame.
White Sox vs Orioles NRFI (-150)
Dylan Cease saw his streak of consecutive games allowing one or fewer runs snapped at 14 in last week's win over Houston, but he's still the most dominant pitcher going right now. With an obscene 1.34 ERA on the road and incredible advanced metrics, Cease is a worthy pitcher to back. Especially considering he's facing a Baltimore Orioles club that scores in the opening frame less than 20% of the time.
This bet really comes down to if you think Austin Voth can stop the Chicago White Sox. Well, I'll have you know that Voth hasn't allowed a single first inning run over 10 starts. He's got strong peripheral numbers and the White Sox are a terrible first inning team, scoring in only 22.95% of their games.
We've got two pitchers we can trust and two lineups that stink in these spots. Thus, the NRFI is the play.
Brewers vs Dodgers NRFI (-135)
Corbin Burnes is the NRFI King, holding 22 of his 24 opponents scoreless. Not to be outdone, Tony Gonsolin is pretty darned good himself. He's got a 20-2 NRFI record and hasn't allowed an early run at home yet this season.
These are good lineups, sure, but the Los Angeles Dodgers just got shut out by Eric Lauer (who stinks) and Milwaukee is prone to disappearing completely randomly. I'll back the factors I have the most confidence in, which are the arms of Burnes and Gonsolin.
Look for these stellar NRFI pitchers to stay hot and deliver us a clean sweep.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.