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Best OVER/UNDER Teams in MLB Through First Month of 2022 Season

By Ben Heisler

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw waves to the crowd following another strong start in 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw waves to the crowd following another strong start in 2022. / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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If you've bet the under in every game this season in Major League Baseball, I'm here to congratulate you on your terrific wagering start to 2022.

Chances are, betting the under for every single game on the schedule to this point has not been your forte (or anyone's, really), but we've gotten a solid sample through the first month-plus of the season to learn from.

Via VSiN's Dave Tuley, unders headed into Wednesday, May 4 of 2022 have hit at a 56% clip this season: 190-149-15.

So why have unders have been successful this season?

The first starts with the baseball. All 30 MLB stadiums are now required to store baseballs in humidors. While 20 teams already did that before 2022, the change in offense feels sizably drastic. Teams are averaging just 4.02 runs per game, which is the lowest average since the early 1980s.

There's also the continued shift in data that gives the edge to the pitcher. Starting pitchers continue to go less deep into games, as hitters often gain a sizable advantage a third time facing the batting order. More pitchers, as well as bullpen arms going longer in games have also impacted the downward shift in offense.

So which of the Major League teams are most responsible for the lack of offense when it comes to betting? Let's dive into the top under and over teams this season.

Which teams have been Major League Baseball's best on the run line so far in 2022? We ran the numbers here...

Top MLB Under Teams in 2022 (as of May 4)

Rankings via TeamRankings

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 6-15-1 (71.4%)
  2. Houston Astros: 7-17-0 (70.8%)
  3. Boston Red Sox: 7-17-0 (70.8%)
  4. Baltimore Orioles: 7-16-1 (69.6%)
  5. Toronto Blue Jays: 9-16-0 (64.0%)

The Dodgers are a fascinating case study. Despite being the best under team in all of baseball; hitting at a 71.4% clip; they also have not lost a single game this year on the run line, meaning they must win by two or more runs as a favorite.

L.A's pitching has been elite. Their 56 runs allowed in 22 games amounts to a team ERA of 2.27 so far this season.

We also see that unders do not correlate with win/loss record. The Dodgers, Astros, and Blue Jays are all above .500 this season, and only the Dodgers rank in the top 6 for team ERA.

Top MLB OVER Teams in 2022 (as of May 4)

  1. Cincinnati Reds: 13-9-1 (59.1%)
  2. Colorado Rockies: 12-10-1 (54.6%)
  3. Philadelphia Phillies: 12-10-2 (54.6%)
  4. Cleveland Guardians: 12-10-0 (54.6%)
  5. Texas Rangers: 11-10-2 (52.4%)

The Reds have been an absolute train wreck; both batting and throwing the baseball. Their team ERA of 6.17 is the highest in the league by 1.16 over the Pittsburgh Pirates. While that's helped cause overs to hit, it's even more impressive (on a negative level) considering that the Reds may be on pace for one of the worst statistical offensive seasons in league history.

On the flip side, the Rockies and Guardians had been leading the way in total runs scored in the early portion of the season, but have since been passed by by several teams.

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