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Best Prop Bets for Kansas State vs. Texas in College Football Week 10

How will Maalik Murphy handle his first test as a starting quarterback when ranked Kansas State comes to Austin?

By Reed Wallach

Texas Longhorns quarterback Maalik Murphy throws a touchdown pass to wide receiver Adonai Mitchell
Texas Longhorns quarterback Maalik Murphy throws a touchdown pass to wide receiver Adonai Mitchell / Jay Janner/American-Statesman / USA
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The top of the Big 12 will be sorted out come Saturday evening and one of the biggest games on the docket is Kansas State travelling to Texas in a battle of ranked foes.

The Longhorns will continue to start Maalik Murphy in place of the injured Quinn Ewers in hopes of staying atop the conference standings. What is the best way to attack Texas' key players from a player prop perspective? The same can be asked for Kansas State's side that has been dyanmic this season, but will face a stout Texas defense.

Here's my three favorite player prop bets for this Big 12 showdown:

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Best Prop Bets for Kansas State vs. Texas

  • Maalik Murphy UNDER 180.5 Passing Yards
  • Will Howard OVER 174.5 Passing Yards
  • D.J. Giddens OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards

Maalik Murphy UNDER 180.5 Passing Yards

Murphy passed for 170 yards on 25 pass attempts in his first career start last week, a 35-6 win against BYU.

Kansas State is a significant step up in class, but can be had in the passing game, the team has allowed 29 or more to the three best passing offenses its seen this season in Missouri, UCF and Oklahoma State. Those teams aren't as explosive as Texas, but I do think we see the Longhorns play a conservative play style on Saturday and lean on the ground game and try to keep things simple for Murphy.

Kansas State can be had through the air, but the team is top 25 in explosive pass defense, so I'm not sure if head coach Steve Sarkisian will be able to scheme up too many deep shots in order to maintain ball control in what could be a defensive struggle.

Will Howard OVER 174.5 Passing Yards

Howard's numbers have been limited at times this season, but some of that is due to the game script.

Take the last two games, for example, Howard passed for 154 yards against TCU and 164 yards against Houston, two blowouts. Kansas State won those games by a combined score of 82-3 and Howard didn't need to take to the air much.

In competitive games, Howard has been aggressive through the air, passing for 270 yards against Missouri and 255 yards against UCF. Texas defense grades out as the 60th best coverage unit according to Pro Football Focus and the weakest part of the Longhorns sturdy defense is that it was 89th in explosive pass defense.

This number is being anchored in a ton of blowout wins for Kansas State, but in a competitive matchup, he should clear the 200-yard barrier.

D.J. Giddens OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards

This number is far too low given this matchup and Giddens overall body of work.

Giddens has cleared this number in five of eight games and given that the Longhorns have one of the most formidable defensive lines in college football, this can be a pass-heavy script from the Wildcats.

Texas is 21st in yards per carry and ninth in defensive line yards. I believe there will be pressure on Howard when he drops back to pass, and it'll lead to plenty of dump-offs for Giddens, who should fly over this total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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