Louisville plays its first true road game after winning its first four of the season, traveling to face a North Carolina State team that is hungry for a signature performance.
Louisville has had an explosive offense thus far, scoring 49 points in the first half against Boston College, but will that travel to Raleigh, North Carolina? I'm targeting wide receiver Jamari Thrash in the player prop market as well as focusing on the Wolfpack running game with dual-threat Brennan Armstrong.
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Best Prop Bets for Louisville vs. North Carolina State
- Jamari Thrash OVER 5.5 Receptions
- Brennan Armstrong UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards
- Michael Allen OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards
Jamari Thrash OVER 5.5 Receptions
Thrash is the big play threat of the Louisville offense, averaging more than three yards per route run and an average depth of target north of 13 yards. However, I believe that the Cardinals will have to throw the ball underneath to get past North Carolina State's 3-3-5 defense which will put the ball in Thrash's hands often.
Thrash had five targets last week and caught all of them, but before that, he had six twice and nine. I believe that the Cards will struggle to get the ball downfield and will try to get Thrash the ball in space with high-percentage throws. I think this is the best way to cash in on the playmaker.
Brennan Armstrong UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards
Armstrong has had to use his legs a ton this season, leading the Wolfpack in rushing yards, but I think that the Louisville pass rush may get home here and put Armstrong way off the course of this number. The Louisville pass rush grades out ninth according to Pro Football Focus while NC State grades out closer to the national average at 45th.
Armstrong has gone over this number twice with big outputs like 64 last week and nearly 100 in Week 1, but I figure that this game will feature more big plays through the air. This number has reached a point too far not to play it back to the under.
Michael Allen OVER 36.5 Rushing Yards
In conjunction with going under on Armstrong, I'll go over on the new No. 1 running back Allen. After running back Jordan Houston redshirted ahead of last week's game, Allen stepped in and had a running back high 10 carries for 36 yards.
I believe last week's number is anchoring this week's prop, but there can be a more comfortable running game for the Wolfpack after Houston redshirted mid-week. I'll take this low over.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!