Best Prop Bets for Notre Dame vs. Louisville in College Football Week 6
By Reed Wallach
Notre Dame's grueling schedule continues on Saturday in Louisville, a seventh straight game and third consecutive primetime tilt against a ranked foe.
How should we handle this marquee matchup from a player prop perspective with the Fighting Irish continuing to focus on the ground game while Louisville continues to try and get the ball to Jamari Thrash as the team's home run threat?
You can read more on this game here, but these are my three favorite player prop bets for Saturday's matchup.
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Best Prop Bets for Notre Dame vs. Louisville in Week 6
- Sam Hartman UNDER 245.5 Passing Yards
- Mitchell Evans UNDER 51.5 Receiving Yards
- Jamari Thrash OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards
Sam Hartman UNDER 245.5 Passing Yards
While Hartman engineered a game-winning touchdown drive in the final minutes against Duke, his overall numbers don't match the expectations. He has one monster outing, passing for 330 yards against Central Michigan, but against like competition he passed for 222 yards against Duke and 175 yards against Ohio State.
While Hartman is set to get some key receivers back, I don't trust Notre Dame to try and beat Louisville through the air. The team passes on about 44% of plays, 104th in the country in passing rate, and plays at a tempo outside the top 100 in plays per minute.
This number is based on Hartman's lofty expectations, but the truth is that this game is going to feature more runs and fewer plays than this number implies.
Mitchell Evans UNDER 51.5 Receiving Yards
Evans's stock is way up after a monster outing against Duke in which he had six catches for 134 yards as the Irish tried to navigate injuries to the wide receiver room, but we now need to sell high on the ND tight end.
The Cardinals bolster an elite pass defense that is allowing a completion percentage of 55% through five games and should put pressure on the visitors to complete passes in traffic. Evans has caught 18 of his 22 targets, and against a stout pass defense, he may find some regression and be thrown more contested passes.
This number is rightfully up after two big games, but the projected usage won't match it on Saturday night.
Jamari Thrash OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards
Thrash is the game-breaker in this Louisville offense, and I believe Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm is going to scheme up several plays to get him into space and make plays against this Notre Dame secondary.
Thrash has gone over 70 receiving yards in all but one game this season, last week against North Carolina State. Even in the subdued outing against the Wolfpack, Thrash had a 31-yard play in the passing game.
Despite playing several limited passing games, Notre Dame ranks 60th in explosive pass defense, and if Louisville is going to attack there it will be Thrash's doing. I'll go over this number.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!