Bet the Bucks Now With Series Tied Going Back to Milwaukee

The Boston Celtics evened their second round series against the Milwaukee Bucks in Round 2, winning 106-83 at home on Tuesday night.

While the Celtics blew out the Bucks, I'm not certain that play is sustainable, and the Bucks are heading home after taking care of business on the road and grabbing a win. With the series price nearly even, I believe that the Bucks are primed to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Before I breakdown some thoughts leading to Milwaukee, let's check out the updated series prices from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Bucks vs. Celtics Series Prices

• Bucks: +105
• Celtics: -125

Celtics Offense Has Concerns Moving Forward

I credit Boston for showing up in a must-win spot in Game 2 after losing Game 1, but I'm not going to overreact to the final score line as the game was full of outlier shooting.

Boston shot 20-of-43 from beyond the arc while Milwaukee shot 3-of-18. If that perimeter shooting holds up over the course of a series, then yes the Celtics are likely to win. Yes, I believe Milwaukee has some leaky perimeter defense, but I'm not buying it.

This is not the end all be all, but look at how ShotQuality rated Game 2.

Take it with a grain of salt, but the Celtics couldn't miss from beyond the arc while the Bucks seemed out of sorts on offense. In the second half, we saw a more reasonable expectation of the Celtics offense, which scored 29 points through about the first 20 minutes of the second half. Milwaukee cut it to 12 in the fourth before the Celtics weathered the storm, but the team needed a lot of bail out 3's to secure the victory.

In the first half, the Celts had a 141.3 offensive rating, per NBA.com, but that number dropped to 95.7 in the second half.

I've been concerned about the Bucks defense, which was 14th in defensive rating in the regular season, but I do believe we saw their worst output on that side of the ball. The Celtics moved the ball with a purpose finding shooters that put the ball in. They also fed off a frenzied home crowd and shot well above expectation. I think we see things even out for Boston's offense over the course of the series.

Boston Can Hold Off Giannis, but Milwaukee's Offense can Improve

I don't think there is a wide margin between the two teams, and we have seen the likes of Al Horford and Grant Williams do great work on Giannis Antetokounmpo through the first two games, but I do believe we see the role players from Milwaukee round into form (especially at home). Antetkounmpo was able to compile 7 assists in spite of the team shooting 16% from beyond the arc. We have seen the Bucks superstar improve as a passer and has been able to create for others in addition to himself.

Giannis may not be able to find a ton of clean looks and put together his most efficient outing because news flash: the Celtics defense is legit. The two-time MVP scored 52 points on 38% shooting through 2 games. However, I think the rest of the team can pick up some of his slack given his growth as a passer.

I'm not sure if the Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Antetokounmpo lineups are going to work long term in this series, but I'm also not sure that Milwaukee will shoot 13-of-37 on uncontested field goal attempts, per NBA.com. There are adjustments for Milwaukee to make and more bench players to deploy around Antetokounmpo, while I think we saw the ceiling of Boston's play.

Boston's defense is strong, but Giannis has been the best player on the floor and I think he can continue to find role players to play on a shifted defense and generate enough offense to out pace a sputtering Celtics defense.

Injury Talk

Well, Reed, Marcus Smart didn't play in Game 2 and he's much better than the combination of Derrick White (who is afraid of his own shadow on offense) and Payton Pritchard. Yes, Smart is a fantastic defender and a capable 3-point shooter, but I don't believe that his defensive impact is as important as his season long award indicates.

Not to mention, Smart is clearly bothered by the quad injury (among other lingering ailments) that it kept him out of a playoff game. I imagine Smart won't miss more time given Game 3 isn't until Saturday, but there needs to be caution around his impact moving forward.

In any case, I actually think the Celtics need Smart's offense more than his defense. Yes he is the Defensive Player of the Year, but he doesn't have the size for Antetokounmpo and is a willing facilitator on offense to alleviate some pressure on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, averaging 6.8 assists through 5 postseason games.

Speaking of Jaylen Brown, he bounced back strong in Game 2 after a poor Game 1. He scored 30 points on 11-of-18 shooting in the win, canning 6 triples after a 12-point outing in the Game 1 defeat.

However, he looked worse for ware in the second half of Game 2, scoring 5 points on 2-of-8 shooting, grabbing his hamstring at times. Brown has been battling a hamstring injury over the last week or so, and that can flare up as this series goes longer.

So, those are a pair of wounded Celtics, but what about the Bucks? Milwaukee has been playing without Khris Middleton, who is recovering from a sprained MCL and is sidelined indefinitely. Maybe Middleton can come back at the end of the series, but I'm skeptical.

Bet Milwaukee to Win Series

Overall, it's noteworthy that the Celtics have two guards battling injuries, and not a ton of depth behind them. The team played 7 players in the second half.

That being said, the team still has the Giannis stoppers at full capacity in both Horford and Williams (and to a lesser extent Robert Williams). However, Antetokounmpo did have a dominant second half, 9-of-15 shooting and 23 points as well as 7 rebounds and 3 assists. Maybe he started to figure out the Boston defense? I'm just not sure that we can expect a poor Antetokounmpo shooting each game.

There's expected shooting regression in both directions that helps the Bucks coming home for Game 3 and 4. With a banged up Brown and Smart, a lot of pressure is going to fall on Tatum to continue to create at a high level on offense, but he has an all world defender in Jrue Holiday checking him.

I'm not sold on the Celtics offense generating enough to expose the Bucks defense to win 4 games. While there were some leaky rotations, there was also some outlier shot making. I believe that Antetokounmpo can find holes in the Celtics vaunted defense and I trust him as a small underdog and 3 home games to navigate this series and make it to another Eastern Conference Finals.

PICK: Bucks Win Series +105

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!