Bet the Memphis Grizzlies to Win the Southwest Before It's Too Late

Despite losing Ja Morant for a chunk of the season, the Memphis Grizzlies have bolted to the top of the Southwest Division, and may not be looking back, leading the Dallas Mavericks by 2.5 games.

Memphis has won seven of eight games without their star guard, leading the NBA in net rating over that time, per NBA.com. The Grizz are allowing a league best 96 points per 100 possessions, anchoring their recent stretch as well as the emergence of Jaren Jackson Jr, who is turning into the foundational piece they had hoped when they took him No. 4 in the 2019 Draft.

Here are the odds to win the Southwest Division, per WynnBET Sportsbook.

Southwest Division Odds

Dallas Mavericks: -175
Memphis Grizzlies: +120
San Antonio Spurs: +8000
New Orleans Pelicans: +12500

The Mavericks are still the considerable favorites to win the award, but I'm skeptical that they are going to keep pace with the Grizz over the course of the season.

The issues start with Luka Doncic, who has been battling an ankle injury of late after arriving to training camp overweight this season.

Sources: Luka Doncic has reported to training camp weighing more than 260 pounds the last two years. "I know I've got to do better," Doncic said about his conditioning. https://t.co/vuk7WSHxI3 https://t.co/vuk7WSHxI3
— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) December 8, 2021

Doncic was ruled out for both legs of the Mavs' most recent back-to-back against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets in order to get that ankle right.

Jason Kidd says Luka Doncic will sit out both games of the back-to-back after turning his sore left ankle again. "He continues to get treatment, and we’ll see how he feels for Wednesday’s game," Kidd said.
— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) December 12, 2021

On the year, the Mavs are league average on both sides of the ball, posting a 0.0 net rating. While Doncic is an MVP-caliber player, I'm not bullish about the current roster construction that is 21st in effective field goal percentage to push back to the top of the standings.

Things look much brighter for the Grizz at this point, who have built a defensive identity as they await the return of Morant, the teams dynamic playmaker. There's no timetable as he heals from a knee sprain, but Taylor Jenkins said it would be a "few weeks" when he announced the injury two weeks ago.

At + money, with a 2.5-game cushion on the Mavericks, I see this as a strong + money wager, especially considering the Spurs and Pelicans are already off pace by at least six games.

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