Bet These 5 MLB Season-Long Prop Bets Ahead of Opening Day (Fade Yordan Alvarez)

In a few days, the 2024 Major League Baseball season will be on full-throttle and I for one can't wait.

For me, baseball is unlike any other sport, a daily six-month grind of highs and lows, where what you thought you knew in March turns into what you should have known by October.

I've always been fascinated by numbers and baseball caters to me and other numerophiles, allowing us to track numbers throughout the season.

We have so much information at our fingertips, that we'd like to believe we are more informed and our chances of being "right" are better than ever.

That's exactly how I felt last March in Las Vegas when I put down a bet on Jeremy Pena's OVER 18.5 home runs.

That didn't work out so well, as Pena hit his final home run of 2023 on July 5, and it was his 10th of the season.

And there I was last October, muttering, "I should have known."

Undeterred, I'm back and ready for this season with these five season-long prop bets to consider.

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Follow along with me as I track these bets through the swings of the season with regular updates filled with the highs and lows of betting season long props.

Yordan Alvarez UNDER 37.5 Home Runs

There are reasons to believe the Astros slugger can obliterate this number just like he does opponents pitches.

Rookie manager Joe Espada will bat Alvarez second this season and that should afford the slugger a few more at-bats and ostensibly more protection, making this number seem doable.

But Alvarez has had trouble staying healthy, playing 135 and 114 games respectively the last two seasons, has never hit more than 37 home runs in a season. Espada has recently talked about the importance of keeping his players fresh during the season.

It's a bit of a mystery how much left field Alvarez will be playing this season vs. DH, but either way expect his off days to be more than the typical number and don't be surprised if bumps, bruises and "general soreness" keep him out of a few more games.

Rafael Devers UNDER 32.5 Home Runs

Unlike with Alvarez, this is a number Devers has surpassed a couple of times in his career and I admit it's a risk taking the under in this spot.

I'm betting on the Red Sox not being very good, motivation waning and the organization being cautious with their investment in Devers as they fall farther and farther behind in the AL East as the season goes on.

It's a contrarian play, and we should always keep in mind there are more paths to an under (injury being the biggest) than there are an over.

Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 169.5 Hits

The soon-to-be 24-year-old has averaged 163.5 hits over his first two Major League seasons and went from 150 to 177 from year one to two.

He's young and healthy, with a trajectory pointing up and the Royals will be much improved with Witt, Jr. being the centerpiece of a franchise with a bright future.

Freddie Freeman OVER 176.5 Hits

This seems like a gift if Freeman remains healthy as over the last three years Freeman has banged out 180, 199 and 211 hits, respectively.

Health is a consideration as players approach their mid-thirties, but Freeman shows no signs of slowing down and I'm not worried about a 1-for-6 showing in Seoul.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 164.5 Hits

Guerrero fell short of this number last season ending the 2023 campaign with 159 hits, but that makes this number a value pick in my book.

Guerrero is young, plays almost every day and is on a mission to erase 2023, as his .467/.529/.800 slash line this spring suggests.

I don't want to make too much of Guerrero bashing Double-A pitchers this spring, but the bottom line is he easily reached this number in 2021 and 2022, and even when he struggled last season Guerrero was just six hits short.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.