College football action restarts on Tuesday with three bowl games on the docket.
With three games on tap, we have plenty of coverage for you over on our BetSided Bowl Bash page, but this is going to cover our favorite bets on Tuesday! Get our favorite bets for Bowling Green vs. Minnesota, Rice vs. Texas State, and UNLV vs. Kansas below!
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Best Bets for College Football Bowl Games on Tuesday, December 26th
- Bowling Green +4 vs. Minnesota
- Rice vs. Texas State OVER 59.5
- Kansas vs. UNLV UNDER 67.5
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick
While Minnesota is a Big Ten team, playing in a far tougher conference than Bowling Green, a MAC member, I don't see any difference between the state of both teams.
The Golden Gophers struggled all year and will turn to a third-string quarterback in its bowl game. Meanwhile, the team's defense, which has been its calling card over the past several years, has struggled mightily and won't have its defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who took the same position at Michigan State. The team is 96th in yards per play allowed and particularly poor at defending the run, allowing nearly five yards per carry.
That's Bowling Green's strength, who is 15th in EPA/Rush and may get Stewart back in the fold. The team has an identity around its run game and vaunted defensive line, which is top 20 in sacks this season and has gained more turnovers than any team in the country (27). Doesn't this seem like a really good spot for a havoc-driven defense to show up and beat a team that is full of question marks on offense?
Meanwhile, the Gophers are 119th in yards per play this season, and now are starting an outmatched quarterback.
Name brands are likely driving the fact that Minnesota is favored, but I don't expect the team to get margin on Bowling Green's formidable defense with a complete zero at quarterback.
I'll take the points in a bowl game where they are likely hard to come by.
PICK: Bowling Green +4
Rice vs. Texas State Prediction and Pick
Texas State has run hot and cold during the season, on the wrong side of a 77-31 loss to Arkansas State before wrapping up the season with a 52-44 win at home against South Alabama. The team has a strong defensive line that is stout against the run, but its secondary is vulnerable to big passing plays, 122nd in EPA/Pass this season.
Padgett has showcased he's capable under center and the Rice passing game has been elite for much of the season, 19th in EPA/Pass. Rice's offense line must hold up against Texas State's defense line that is second in the country in tackles for loss, but if it does this may turn into a high-scoring affair as the team is bottom 10 in explosive play rate allowed.
Rice's defense has been above AAC average all season. The team is right around the national average in terms of yards per play (67th) and points per drive allowed (66), but the team will face an explosive Texas State offense that is 32nd in yards per play.
There aren't many opt-outs in this game, but Texas State didn't have two offensive starters play in the regular season finale, left guard Dorion Stawn and wide receiver Joey Hobert. I don't think the transfer portal will factor in too much to this game, which I make Texas State -3. Even if we adjust more towards the Bobcats on the news that Padgett will start in place of Daniels, I don't think it's a massive drop-off.
With a ton of explosive plays in store, I'll side with variance and take the underdog to hang around and make this competitive.
Pick: Rice +3.5
Kansas vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick
Both offenses are incredibly dynamic, evident in the total being a sky-high 64.5 as of this writing. However, I'm going to fade both offenses and take the under.
Andy Kotelnicki, the architect of the team's unique offense, has taken the same role as Penn State, meaning that there should be a tangible drop-off in the team's offensive play calling. While UNLV's defense has had issues stopping explosive passes, I'm concerned that Kansas' offense is going to be somewhat subdued given the coaching changes and that the team has two starters dealing with injuries and in doubt to play -- Bryce Cabeldue and Michael Ford Jr.
Meanwhile, UNLV's offense hit the skids despite an overwhelmingly positive season under first-year OC Brennan Marion. The 'go-go' offense has been dynamite in 2023, 39th in yards per play and 12th in explosive rush rate. However, the team may hold out Maiava in this game with his knee injury and also play a KU defense that has played slightly better as the season has gone on.
The Jayhawks closed the season allowing 21, 16, 31, and 16 points. The team plays at a tempo outside the top 100 in terms of plays per minute and may look to slow this game down without its primary playcaller.
Both teams have been exciting on offense, but I'll be the one on the side of the under in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!