BetSided’s Home Run Derby Top Picks and Predictions (Roundtable)

Washington Nationals star Juan Soto.
Washington Nationals star Juan Soto. / Brett Davis/GettyImages

Major League Baseball’s marquee event, the Home Run Derby, truly kicks off the All-Star festivities, and we have a doozy of a competition on Monday night. 

Two-time defending champion Pete Alonso is back to defend his crown, but there are plenty of contenders, young and old, looking to knock him off. 

Fans get a look at the next generation of MLB greats (Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez) while also honoring the past, as Albert Pujols will compete to capture his first ever Home Run Derby crown. 

Here are the odds for the Derby, via WynnBET

MLB Home Run Derby 2022 Odds

  • Pete Alonso (New York Mets) +200
  • Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies) +330
  • Juan Soto (Washington Nationals) +600
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Atlanta Braves) +650
  • Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners) +850
  • Corey Seager (Texas Rangers) +900
  • Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Guardians) +1600
  • Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals) +2200

Our team of Ben Heisler, Reed Wallach and Peter Dewey are looking to cash in on an outright winner, and help all of our readers do the same. 

Here are our picks to win the Home Run Derby: 

Best Bets to Win Home Run Derby 2022

Juan Soto (+600)

There's two important factors in play for why I landed on Juan Soto as my pick to win the Derby at very intriguing 6/1 odds.

The draw is very favorable. Soto takes on José Ramírez (second-longest odds to win the Derby at +1600) before facing either Kyle Schwarber (+330) or Albert Pujols (+2200). Defeating Schwarber would be a tough task, especially after he clubbed 55 total home runs in the derby back in 2018; losing to Bryce Harper in Nationals Park in the final round, but Soto is more than up for the challenge. He defeated Shohei Ohtani in a double swing-off last year before losing by a single home run to eventual winner Pete Alonso in the second round.

Next, the experience. Soto just participated in this event a season ago, whereas Schwarber is four seasons removed from the derby. With updated rules and a better feel for the event, that's an edge for the 23-year old. If he can knock out fellow NL-east competitor Schwarber and get a rematch with Alonso in the finals, he'll feast on that chance.

As I wrote earlier today, Soto is betting on himself after his camp reportedly turned down 15-years and $440 million. He's got a shot to go to Hollywood and put on a show. -- Ben Heisler

Juan Soto has experience in the contest and I like his path to the finals. While Kyle Schwarber has the most home runs in the NL, Soto's effortless swing and consistency can propel him past both Ramirez and then Schwarber, who should destroy Albert Pujols. 

The other side is a more difficult path with two-time champ Pete Alonso facing two of Ronald Acuna Jr, Corey Seager and Julio Rodriguez. At 6-1, I like Soto's chances at making a run. – Reed Wallach

Julio Rodriguez (+850)

I’m all about fun in the Home Run Derby, and that’s what Julio Rodriguez is going to bring. 

Sure, Rodriguez doesn't have the experience in the Derby, but I could see the youngster trying to really cement his name amongst the league’s best players with a Derby win. He already has 16 homers this season, and I like him a lot in the first round against Corey Seager, who was a late add to the AL All-Star team. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. or Pete Alonso would await Rodriguez in the semifinals, but who’s to say Acuna doesn’t knock off the two-time champ? If he does, I think an Acuna-Rodriguez matchup becomes a toss up. 

At +850, Julio is worth a shot. – Peter Dewey

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.