Betting Gonzaga Against St. Mary's is Dangerous

Gonzaga has struggled of late and is a dangerous bet against Saint Mary's tonight
Gonzaga has struggled of late and is a dangerous bet against Saint Mary's tonight / Joe Buglewicz/GettyImages

We've got a marquee matchup in the West Coast Conference Tournament Finals today as the 25-6 Saint Mary's Gaels take on the 25-3 Gonzaga Bulldogs at 6:00 PM PST tonight.

The Gaels just notched a 10-point upset win over the Bulldogs last week and hope to take advantage of a struggling Gonzaga squad. Despite that result, WynnBET has the Bulldogs as 12.5 point favorites in tonight's matchup.

Bettors may expect a bounce-back, dominant performance from Gonzaga tonight. They can't possibly lose two in a row to a conference foe, can they!? But I'm here to tell you to be careful as betting on Gonzaga is suddenly a very dangerous proposition.

Gonzaga's Struggles

The Bulldogs are just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) over their last six and were outscored by San Francisco by 10 in the second half of their last matchup to blow the cover. Their stats are down across the board in their poor stretch of play.

While they're still a dominant team, they appear to have some cracks in their armor heading into the postseason their status at National Championship favorite into question. Over their last five games, they rank in just the 9th percentile in free throw attempts and have fallen from the 72nd percentile in bench scoring to the 8th.

They'll need better play from their depth pieces to make a run in March, but they've also done a poor job of finishing inside. Gonzaga is a solid offensive rebounding team, but they haven't been able to convert those second-chance opportunities recently, falling from the 70th percentile in shooting percentage on offensive rebounds to the 2nd over their last five contests.

Until Gonzaga shows they've snapped out of this funk, it's difficult to trust them as such hefty favorites. Just last week, the Bulldogs were 10.5-point favorites against this same Gaels squad. Now they're catching 12.5 despite doing nothing to assure bettors their slump is over? I don't buy it.

Give me Saint Mary's to stay competitive. Fading Gonzaga has suddenly become a very profitable endeavor and I intend to take advantage of it.