Betting the Over on Denver Broncos' Win Total Is a Pipe Dream

Since the moment Russell Wilson got traded to the Denver Broncos this offseason, I’ve said to pump the brakes on the hype train. Apparently, the oddsmakers didn’t get my memo. 

WynnBET set the Broncos’ win total at 10 games, with the OVER odds at -120 and the UNDER at +100. Not only do I think the Broncos are getting overhyped, but I think betting the OVER this season is a pipe dream. 

Denver is going to be in either the first or second-toughest division in football and will have to play the Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders six times. I find it highly unlikely that anyone in that division sweeps the field, as it's going to be a gauntlet of high powered offenses and even improved defenses. 

Russell Wilson Isn't Enough of Upgrade to Save Denver

My doubts about Russell Wilson are well documented, but part of the reason I think the Broncos will struggle is because the situation at Mile High isn’t a much better one than Seattle – in terms of supporting cast. 

According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics, the Broncos weren’t that much better than the Seahawks last year. DVOA is a way to measure teams against a situational league-average, allowing stat users to adjust for several variables.  Denver was 20tht in the rankings, while the Seahawks were 21st.

When it comes to offense, the Broncos were five spots below the Seahawks last year. Denver’s receiving corps is not as good as what Wilson had in Seattle and will have to step up in order to match the level of production they had. 

When it comes to overall team DVOA, the Broncos were 18th in the league, just outside the bottom third. Meanwhile, the Seahawks were 9th in team DVOA and still ended up with a 7-10 record. Obviously, Wilson’s presence will help Denver and he wasn't the sole reason Seattle was losing games. However, the infrastructure in Denver isn’t as iron clad as many might think -- lending me to hammering the UNDER.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.