The Houston Texans shocked a lot of people on Wild Card Weekend, upsetting the Cleveland Browns as 2.5-point home underdogs to advance in the NFL playoffs.
Despite having a rookie quarterback in CJ Stroud, the Texans easily took care of business last week -- and Stroud played some of the best football of any quarterback in the first round of the postseason.
Now, the Texans find themselves as even bigger underdogs in the divisional round against the Baltimore Ravens. However, that didn't stop one bettor from placing a gigantic wager on Houston to upset Baltimore.
The bettor wagered $45,000 on Stroud and the Texans to win this week, a bet that would net a potential profit of $157,500!
The current odds have the Texans set as +345 on the moneyline, a sign that Vegas thinks there is very little chance the teams wins this game. Based on implied probability, oddsmakers are giving Houston a 22.47 percent chance to advance to the AFC title game.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds, Spread and Total
These teams played in Week 1 of the 2023 season, without Baltimore pulling out a 25-9 win at home. Houston has come a long way since then, and Stroud has quickly become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in his first season.
If you aren't bold enough to take the moneyline in this game like this one bettor (I certainly wouldn't blame you), you could always consider taking Houston to cover the spread. The Texans are currently 4-1 against the spread as road dogs this season and 7-3 ATS as underdogs overall.
As for a best bet, BetSided's NFL analyst Iain MacMillan believes the UNDER is the play in this game, as he noted in his Road to 272 bets:
Both offenses in this matchup poorly with the strengths of the opposing defense. For example, no team runs the ball more than the Baltimore Ravens with 50.28% of their plays being running plays. Now, they face a Texans defense that's second in opponent yards per carry (3.5), sixth in opponent rush EPA, and first in opponent rush success rate.
Teams have been able to throw the ball against them, but that's generally not what the Ravens do. They might struggle to get their offense firing on all cylinders against the stout run defense of the Ravens.
On the other side of things, 72.1% of the offensive yards gained by the Texans come through the air, which is the second highest mark in the NFL. Now they face a Ravens team that has arguably the best secondary in the league, ranking first in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.1), second in opponent dropback EPA, and fourth in opponent dropback success rate.
No matter how you want to bet on this game, there is a way to come out a winner -- a pretty sweet way to get the divisional round started.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.