Beware of Longshot Bet on Nuggets, Teams Down 0-2 Have Little Chance of Coming Back in NBA History
By Reed Wallach
![May 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon (50) in the third quarter May 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon (50) in the third quarter](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_crop,w_5166,h_2905,x_0,y_235/c_fill,w_720,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/images/ImagnImages/mmsport/426/01hxa1wd27njfpdbawy6.jpg)
The Nuggets have been out-classed through two games in its second-round series against the Timberwolves, and history doesn't look too kind on teams down 0-2 in the postseason.
Teams like the Nuggets, facing 0-2 deficits in the postseason, have been eliminated in 93% of instances that it happens, not a promising number for the defending champions as the team is fresh off a 106-80 loss on its home court to the Timberwolves.
According to Land of Basketball, 421 teams that have gone up 2-0 have closed the series out with only 33 rallying to win and advance. The most recent example of a team coming back was the Golden State Warriors in the first round of last year's first-round series against the Sacramento Kings.
However, Denver is in an even more rare set of circumstances as the team went down 0-2 at home.
Teams trailing 0-2 & going on road (like Nuggets currently) are 5-24, when excluding the 2020 Bubble.
— Jorge Sedano (@Sedano) May 7, 2024
Wins were by:
- 2021 Clippers (1st Round vs Mavericks)
- 2017 Celtics (1st Round vs Bulls)
- 2005 Mavericks (1st Round vs Rockets)
- 1994 Rockets (Conf Semis vs Suns)
- 1969…
Technically, the number (which is part of the larger data set) is greater for teams that have recovered from down 0-2 after losing both at home, 17%, likely because the team had a better record if the team had home court advantage.
Oddsmakers are giving Denver a puncher's chance, albeit not much. The team is +475 to come back and advance past Minnesota, which translates to a 17.39% chance, similar to what history would say for this situation.
Denver has its hands full with the Timberwolves' league-best defense and emerging superstar Anthony Edwards, how will Nikola Jokic and the defending champs respond?
Here's the updated series price for the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves series ahead of Game 3 on Friday.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Series Odds
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.